越南钢铁工业净零路线图

Project team and authors: Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Chris Bataille of Columbia University, Astrid Grigsby-Schulteof Global Energy Monitor, Tran Duy Thanh and Rio Jon Piter Silitonga of the ASEAN Centre forEnergy for their insightful comments on the earlier version of this document. Disclaimer The authors and their affiliated organizations have provided the data in this publication forinformational purposes only. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy ofthe information collected and presented, the authors and their affiliated organizations do notmake any express or implied warranty concerning such information. Any estimates containedin the publication reflect authors’ current analyses and expectations based on available dataand information. Any reference to a specific commercial product, process or service by tradename, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not constitute or imply an endorsement,recommendation or favoring by the authors and their affiliated organizations. This publicationreport does not necessarily reflect the policy or intentions of the contributors. This document may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is requested. Suggested citation: Hasanbeigi, A., Springer, C., Savel, C., Truong, Q. T., Valeriz, D. R., Yurnaidi,Z., & Vu, T. D. (2025). Net-Zero Roadmap for Vietnam’s Steel Industry. Global EfficiencyIntelligence and ASEAN Center for Energy. https://www.globalefficiencyintel.comhttps://aseanenergy.org Executive Summary Key Takeaways •The main decarbonization lever to get to Net Zero by 2060 in Vietnam’s steelindustry is a technology shift to low-carbon production routes, primarilyscrap-based Electric Arc Furnaces and green hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron(H₂-DRI). •Green H₂-DRI will be essential for achieving Net Zero but will require majorhydrogen cost reductions and infrastructure investments. (It is assumed torepresent only 10% of total domestic steel production in 2060.) •While green steel production using H₂-DRI in Vietnam may carry a large costpremium per ton of steel, the impact on end products is modest, adding about$285 per passenger car or $790 per 50 m² residential building unit (assuming ahydrogen price of $5/kg H₂). •Green iron imports will play an important role in complementing domesticdecarbonization efforts, but they account for less than 15% of total emissionsreductions in 2060. •CCS is not a major driver of the Net Zero pathway and contributes relatively littleto total emissions reductions in Vietnam’s steel industry by 2060. Vietnam has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Asthe country advances toward its climate targets, emissions from the steel sector will needto peak and decline. Steel production in Vietnam is highly carbon-intensive due to the largeshare of primary blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) steelmaking. With continuedinvestment in new BF-BOF capacity, Vietnam will face challenges in decarbonization of thesteel sector. This report provides an overview of steel production, energy use, and emissionstrends in Vietnam and presents a data-driven roadmap for deep decarbonization throughto 2060. It evaluates multiple technology and policy pathways through scenario analysisand outlines key milestones for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. The report concludes withactionable policy recommendations for Vietnam’s government, steel producers, consumers,and other relevant stakeholders. While Vietnam produces a smaller share of the world’s steel than some major producers, itis one of the fastest-growing steel-producing countries in Southeast Asia. In 2023, Vietnamproduced approximately 19 million tons (Mt) of crude steel and was the 12thlargest steel-producing country. The steel production is expected to grow to up to 55 Mt per year in 2060.The steel industry is an important pillar of Vietnam’s economic development, underpinningthe country’s rapid infrastructure expansion, supporting key manufacturing sectors such asconstruction and shipbuilding, and contributing to export revenues and industrial employment. TheNet-Zero Roadmap for Vietnam’s Steel Industry(‘Roadmap’) describes the current statusof Vietnam’s steel industry and outlines four future industry development scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Moderate, Advanced, and Net-Zero, looking at the impacts of these scenariosthrough to 2060. Although Vietnam’s net zero commitment is for 2050, the relatively youngfleet of BF-BOF plants in Vietnam will make this challenging, and hence our study timelinegoes through 2060. The analysis applies five core decarbonization pillars:1) material efficiency and demand management2) energy efficiency and electrification of heating3) fuel switching and cleaner electricity4) transitioning to low-carbon iron and steelmaking technologies, and5) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). We estimated the total final energy use and CO2emissions of the steel indus