经济构造：美国经济结构变化和生产率趋势

Economic Tectonics: ACloser Look at StructuralChanges and ProductivityTrends in the U.S.Economy Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence WP/25/156 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Asia & the Pacific Department Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Changes and Productivity Trendsin the U.S. EconomyPrepared byBelinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence Authorized for distribution byMasahiro NozakiAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The U.S. economy has undergone profoundstructural transformations in recent decades.Thisdescriptive study analyzestradable and nontradable sectoraltrends, with ourfindings demonstratingthat theshare of tradable sector employment and, within it, manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decadefollowing the GFC after declining for several decades. Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector accountedforalarge majority of employment and real value added. At the same time,the tradable sector exhibited robustproductivity growth of nearly 3percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradable sectors.This marked divergence raisesconcerns regarding inequality and the sustainability of economic growth. Economic Tectonics: A CloserLook at Structural Changes andProductivity Trends in the U.S.Economy Prepared byBelindaAzenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at StructuralChanges and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy Belinda Azenui∗Sandile Hlatshwayo† Michael Spence‡ July 21, 2025 Abstract The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformation in recent decades,predominantly influenced by the forces of globalization, rapid technological innova-tion, and the residual effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This descriptivestudy analyzes trends in U.S. employment, real value added, and labor productivity,highlighting a pronounced divergence between tradable and nontradable sectors. Ourfindings demonstrate that the share of tradable sector employment and, within it,manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decade following the GFC after decliningfor several decades.Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector continued to account for77 percent of total employment while contributing 68 percent to real value added, asmall decrease in its share of value added in prior decades. Based on average annualgrowth rates over 1998-2023, the tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growthof nearly 3 percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradablesectors.This marked divergence raises critical concerns regarding income inequalityand the long-term sustainability of economic growth. Keywords:employment, productivity, tradable and nontradable sectors, structuralchange 1Introduction The structural evolution of the U.S. economy during the two decades leading up to theGlobal Financial Crisis (GFC) was heavily affected by a period of rapid globalization, some-times called the period of ‘hyperglobalization’ (Rodrik, 2019). Powerful deflationary forcesand sometimes disruptive shifts in labor demand materialized globally as a result of improvedtechnology and rapid growth in the productive capacity of large emerging economies–mostprominently, China–that simultaneously increased trade in both intermediate and final prod-ucts while also reducing labor share in the U.S. (Abdih and Danninger, 2017). During that period, several prominent trends emerged. Almost all incremental employ-ment in the U.S. economy occurred in the nontradable sector (i.e., the part of the U.S.economy that cannot be traded across borders; see Box 1), which accounted for almost two-thirds of total value added (i.e., output calculated in a manner that nets out intermediateinputs)1and over 75 percent of employment in the United States (Spence and Hlatshwayo,2012). On the other side of the economy, the tradable sector has two parts: manufacturingand tradable, usually high value added, services.Employment in manufacturing declinedsteadily during those two decades, while employment in tradable services grew by about thesame amount, resulting in only a small net addition to employment from the tradable side. The decline in manufacturing employment can be linked to both factors briefly statedabove.One was the proliferation and deepening of global value chains, where large andcomplex portions of manufacturing supply chains could be offshored to lower-cost and in