7月政治局会议对期货价格影响

Politburo Meeting Influence on Futures Prices7月政治局会议对期货价格影响 姜婧Jiang Jing从业资格号Qualification No：F3018552投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013315黄舒瑶Huang Shuyao从业资格号Qualification No：F03108055投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021478仲鼎Zhong Ding从业资格号Qualification No：F03107932投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021450张默涵Zhang Mohan从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317徐轲Xu Ke从业资格号Qualification No：F03123846投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0019914沈照明Shen Zhaoming从业资格号Qualification No：F3074367投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0015479程小庆Cheng Xiaoqing从业资格号Qualification No：F3083989投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0018635董丹丹Dong Dandan从业资格号Qualification No：F03142141投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021744李青Li Qing从业资格号Qualification No：F3056728投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0014122桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z001363 CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract On July 30, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee convened to analyze the currenteconomic landscape and outline key tasks for the second half of 2025. The meeting acknowledgedthe successful economic performance in H1, with discussions covering anti-involution measures,consumption stimulus,local debt management, capital market reforms,foreign trade stability,macroeconomic policies, and private investment. Additionally, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20thCPC Central Committee in October will focuson formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). This report provides investors with actionable strategies across equities, bonds, and commoditysectors(ferrous/non-ferrous metals,new energy metals,energy/chemicals,and agriculturalproducts),integrating the meeting's policy signals concerning anti-involution initiatives andfundamental analyses. Risks: Macro sentiment volatility, policy shifts, geopolitical risks, tariff adjustments, etc. 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议肯定了上半年的经济发展成功，会议内容涉及反内卷、促消费、地方债、资本市场，以及稳外资外贸、宏观政策、民间投资等内容。此外，10月将在召开的二十届四中全会，重点关注“十五五”规划。 结合此次会议内容，以及反内卷政策和品种基本面，本报告为投资者提供股指、债券，以及黑色金属、有色金属、新能源金属、能源化工以及农产品等板块的策略。 风险因素：宏观情绪波动、政策风险、地缘风险、关税变动等。 目录Content 1.China Macro..................................................................................................................3中国宏观...................................................................................................................................32.Equity Index..................................................................................................................5股指...........................................................................................................................................53.Treasury Bond..............................................................................................................7国债...........................................................................................................................................74.Ferrous Metals..............................................................................................................7黑色建材...................................................................................................................................75.Non-ferrous Metals......................................................................................................8有色金属...................................................................................................................................86.Energy and Chemical..................................................................................................9能源化工...................................................................................................................................97.Agricultural Products................................................................................................10农业.........................................................................................................................................108.Carbon Neutrality.......................................................................................................12能源转型与碳中和..................................................................................................................12 20250723 Anti-Involution Policy Reading and Influence on Futures Prices“反内卷”政策对期货价格影响 1.ChinaMacro 中国宏观 The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30,andanalyzedthe current economic situation and outlined economic tasks for the second half of the year. The meeting affirmed the economic work in the first half of the year,and suggested thatthere would berelatively few new policy measures introduced.The assessment of the economicsituation in the first half was relatively positive, with major economic indicators performing well.Giventhe steady and progressive economic performance in the first half of the year, there is limitedimmediate need for large-scale stimulus. The general tone emphasized improving quality andaccelerating implementationtomakebetter use of existing policies, with relatively