亚洲宏观洞察：8月1日前的最后冲刺

Asia Last-Minute Push Before August 1st Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203 For Asian economies that have reported their Q2 GDP, export front-loading droveoutperformance relative to expectations. We continue to expect an export paybackin the second half (2H) of the year, weighing on overall growth. Trade dealsannounced thus far suggest that the average US tariff rate for Asia could doublefrom the current 10% baseline, especially when pending sectoral tariffs onsemiconductors and pharmaceuticals are taken into account. Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909 Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139 Asia's growth slowdown may be more than a mere technical payback, with therelative difference in US tariff rates also resulting in greater divergence inperformance within the region. Vietnam may outperform, while the opposite mayhold true for Thailand given additional political headwinds. Risks to China remainbalanced, assuming an extended truce with the US. Pressure is on the South Koreangovernment to deliver a deal similar to Japan's 15% agreement, while India's dealremains pending, and its central bank may be considering another rate cut. Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699 Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 Central banks in Asia have largely discounted recent positive economic data, withmany recently opting to ease monetary policy (BI, BNM, BSP, and RBI) and/ormaintain a dovish bias (BoK, BoT and MAS), signaling further easing to come. TheBoT is likely to deliver another 75 bps rate cut, followed by 50 bps rate cuts by BI,BoK, and SBV, with BSP potentially following suit. Overview …………………………..……1China….......................................................2Hong Kong…...............................................6India….........................................................8Indonesia…...............................................12Malaysia…................................................14Philippines….............................................16Singapore…..............................................18South Korea..............................................20Sri Lanka...................................................22Taiwan……...............................................24Thailand…................................................26Vietnam…................................................28Asia's response to reciprocal tariffs….....30DB Macro Forecasts..................................35Growth & Inflation Heatmap……..........36EM Asia Macro Charts…..........................37EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor…........39 Source : Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics China nChina's GDP grew by 5.2% YoY in Q2, supported by government subsidiesto consumer products and a robust recovery in the services sector.However, nominal GDP slowed to 3.9% YoY, due to a further decline inproducer prices. nExports remained resilient despite trade tensions, resulting in an improvedindustrial production in June. Domestic demand softened somewhat, withretail sales and services output slowing and investment decelerating. Theproperty sector underperformed throughout Q2. Private sector sentimentimproved though, suggested by stronger corporate borrowing and reducedhousehold savings. nCapacity utilization remained low, while producer prices dropped further.This affirms the need of anew round of supply-side reform, whichwill likelybecome a main theme of economy policy in the coming quarters. The JulyPolitburo meeting will be critical for potential policy announcements. nLooking forward, we do not expect new policy stimulus announcements inthe next few months. Growth will likely slow in Q3, triggering additionalpolicy support by early Q4.Meanwhile, supply-side reforms could lead toimprovements in deflator and nominal GDP growth. We reiterate our realGDP forecast of 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 and see balanced risks. Economy: signs of softening in domestic demand China's GDP grew by 5.2% YoY in Q2, higher than consensus (5.1%) but slightlylower than our forecast (5.3%).This was achieved with the help of governmentsubsidies to consumer products and a robust recovery in the services sector.Evidently, consumption contributed more than half of GDP growth in the first half,with the contribution in YoY growth reaching 2.8% YoY and 2.7% YoY in Q1 and Q2,respectively. However, nominal GDP slowed to 3.9% YoY, the lowest level since Q4-2022, due to a further decline in GDP deflator (-1.3% YoY). Exports remained resilient despite trade tensions.Exports rebounded to 5.8%YoY in June, resulting in a 5.9% growth in the first half of this year, which was evenhigherthan the readings in 2024(3.7%)and 2023(-3.5%).Net exports'scontribution to overall GDP growth also stayed positive at 1.7% YoY Ytd in the firsthalf. Strong export performance likely stemmed from two key factors. First, exportstonon-US regions,especially ASEAN economies,remained robust,largelyoffsetting declines in US-bound exports. Second, exports to the US fe