长期社会保障预测的挑战

Presentation at the National Bureau of Economic Research’sSummer Institute 2025: Economics of Social Security Molly DahlLabor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division For information about the conference, seewww.nber.org/conferences/si-2025-economics-social-security. Balances of the Social Security Trust Funds and theActuarial Deficit In CBO’s projections, the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust funddeclines to zero (that is, the balance of the trust fund is exhausted) in fiscal year 2033, andthe balance of the Disability Insurance trust fund declines to zero in 2060. If the two trustfunds were combined, the combined balance would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034,9 years from now. In the first year after the balances of the trust funds are exhausted, theamountofresources available to pay benefits would be 22 percent smaller than theamountofscheduled benefits. The shortfall would increase over time. Over the next 75 years, the actuarial deficit would equal 1.7 percent of GDP, or4.9 percent of taxable payroll (the total payroll subject to the Social Security tax). How Research Informs CBO's Projections ofSocial Security's Finances Demographics are a key factor in projections of Social Security’s finances, asdemographics are a primary determinant of the ratio of the number of people who areemployed to the number of people who are receiving Social Security. Research about changes in demographic relationships over time informs CBO’sprojections in several ways, including the following: §CBO's projections of the fertility rate depend on the agency's assessment of thechanges in the relationship between fertility and the mother's country of origin over time. §CBO's projections of the number and characteristics of other foreign nationals areinformed by the agency's assessment of changes in net immigration and in immigrationenforcement. The other-foreign-national category includes people who entered the United States illegally and have not obtained a permanent legal status, those who were permitted to enter thecountry lawfullythrough the use ofparole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court, and those who previously resided in the United States legally in atemporary status but who remained in the country after that legal status expired. Net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category consists of people who join that category upon their arrival from foreign countries, plus people already living in theUnited States who move into that category when their temporary legal status expires, minus people who move out of the OFN category by emigrating or by obtaining a legalimmigration status. Fertility Rates and the Mother's Country of Origin Historically, foreign nationals who have migrated to the United States have had higher fertilityrates than people born in the United States. Reflecting that historical difference, CBO’sprojections consist of separate fertility rates for women who were born in the United States andthose who were born elsewhere. Key Question:Given the decline in fertility rates globally, will the past observed relationshipbetween fertility and the mother’s country of origin hold true in the future? Research examples: §Marion Carter, “Fertility of Mexican Immigrant Women in the U.S.: A Closer Look,”SocialScience Quarterly, vol. 81, no. 4 (December 2000), pp. 1073–1086,www.jstor.org/stable/42864041. §AliciaAdseraand Ana Ferrer, “Factors Influencing the Fertility Choices of Child Immigrants inCanada,”Population Studies, vol. 68, no. 1 (March 2014), pp. 65–79.https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.802007. Projecting Changes in Net Immigration CBO bases its estimates of net immigration on its assessment of recent trends and aimsfor its projections to fall in the middle of the likely range of outcomes in the absence of newlegislation or significant administrative or judicial changes. Several factors cause those projections of net immigration to be uncertain: –Changes in law and administrative actions over time,–Limited data on individuals entering the United States illegally, and–Changing conditions in immigrants’ countries of origin. Projections of changes in net immigration are central to CBO’s Social Security projectionsfor the following reasons: –Changes could affect the total fertility rate (see previous slide), and–Changes in net immigration would affect tax revenues and benefit outlays. Changes in the Number of Other Foreign Nationals Entering theUnited States People entering between official ports of entry –From January to May 2024, 89,000 people per month were released after encountering aCBP official.–An executive order issued in June 2024temporarily suspendedthe entry of mostnoncitizens at the southern border; from June to December of that year, 19,300 people permonth were released.–Releases have continued to decline in 2025, equaling 7,200 people in January;1,300 people in February; 800 people in March a