美国固定收益市场概览

US Fixed Income Overview Crazy train •VOTE: The Extel (formerly known as II) 2025 US Fixed Income Strategy Survey isunderway. Please consider supporting J.P. Morgan strategists with your vote here•Economics: We expect that the Committee will leave the target range for the fed fundsrate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. We forecast a 100k gain in nonfarm payrolls and the unem-ployment rate rising to 4.2% in July•Treasuries: Risks are skewed to a steeper yield curve following Treasury’s quarterlyrefunding announcement as we do not expect long-end auction size cuts or substantialchanges to the buyback program. We expect a multi-quarter series of coupon auctionsize increases beginning in February 2026, though we now expect increases will be con-centrated in front-end and belly maturities. Add 5s20s steepeners. Forward inflationexpectations appear rich, particularly in the belly; initiate 2Yx3Y inflation swap shortpaired with a 25% pay fixed nominal swap•Interest Rate Derivatives: Maintain swap spread curve flattening exposure in the longend ahead of next week’s refunding announcement. We continue to anticipate firmerfunding conditions as T-bill issuance ramps up - maintain 5Y swap spread narrowers.Turn tactically bullish on volatility•Short Duration: We discuss the latest events in the stablecoin and tokenization space•Securitized Products: We remain neutral on mortgages, with a preference for low-to-mid payup specs in higher coupons. In the belly, prefer modestly seasoned pools to avoidexpanding floats of builder buydowns. We revise our 2025 HPA forecast to 0%, downfrom 3% previously•Corporates: HG bond spreads have traded within a 3bp range MTD, trendless nearall-time tights as positive supply technicals and attractive yields more than offset tariffand growth concerns•Near-term catalysts: ADP Employment (7/30), 2Q25 Real GDP (7/30), FOMC Meet-ing (7/30), PCE (7/31), Employment (8/1) Must Read This Week DM easing and their reaction functionbias, Bruce Kasman, 7/25/2510 Strategic Themes for 2H25 andBeyond: America First--US remainsindispensible, if not exceptional, in thenew world disorder, Joyce Chang,7/23/25How safe is Powell’s job?, Michael Feroli,7/16/25 Ozzy Osbourne once famously sang, “I’m going off the rails on a crazy train.” Next week,we’re hopping on our own crazy train, with a whirlwind of events set to unfold. On theagenda, we have the August 1 tariff deadline, the FOMC meeting, the July employmentreport, and the August Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. Turning first to tradepolicy, President Trump has made several announcements leading up to August 1. The USreached a trade deal with Japan, and news reports also suggested the US may reach a similardeal with the EU. President Trump stated today that he would send out almost 200 lettersnext week, specifying the tariff rates that countries will pay on imports to the US.While nodoubt there will be further deals negotiated with larger trading partners, the messagecontinues to be that high tariffs are here to stay—and at levels not so different thanthose originally proposed on April 2(seeUS Weekly Prospects, Michael Feroli, 7/18/25). And Now Hear This…At Any Rate: US Rates - Previewing theAugust refunding announcement, JayBarry, Phoebe White, 7/23/25 On the data front, last week’s June CPI report showed the core index rose a touch softer thanconsensus (0.23%), but components of the index with a significant share of imported dura-ble goods are showing further signs of clear upward pressure attributable to tariffs (seeUS:June CPI soft even as tariff pass through grows, Michael Hanson, 7/15/25). Coupled withdetails of the PPI and import price reports,we think core PCE is tracking a 0.30% gain Phoebe WhiteAC(1-212) 834-3092phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCLiam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230liam.wash@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC Molly Herckis (1-212) 622-0899molly.herckis@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Fixed IncomeStrategyUS Fixed Income Overview25 July 2025 in June, which would take the oya series from 2.7% to 2.8%(seeUS: June import pricessurprised softer, Michael Hanson, 7/17/25). With this in mind,we expect that the Committee will leave the target range for the fedfunds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.We expect that Governor Waller will dissent for a cut;Governor Bowman is a closer call, but we suspect she joins him and dissents dovishly. Gov-ernor Waller’s latest speech made the case for a July cut, and he has moved even more dovishafter being the most dovish member of the FOMC for the last year. Meanwhile, GovernorBowman, who had dissented against the 50bp cut in September and has on average been oneof the more hawkish members of the Committee for the last year, turned extremely dovishin her last appearance in late June. However, our hawk-dove score shows a large gapbetween these two officials (Figure 1). We do not expect Chair Powell to close the door onthe September meeting, given that there are two