技术服务仍在为小公司计算

Technology services still computing for small firms 06 May 2025 Key takeaways •Equipment and software investment has steadily increased since 2008, and reached more than $1.3 trillion at the end of 2024.However, heightened economic uncertainty threatens continued investment as more firms pause capex purchases. •Yet, for many firms, technology-based investment can promote productivity and enhance efficiency. According to a Bank ofAmerica proprietary survey, more than 90% of small and mid-sized businesses plan to invest in digital tools. Plus, small businesspayments to technology services firms grew 11.1% year-over-year (YoY) in March, according to Bank of America internal data. •Manufacturing and retail showed weaker technology services payment growth than construction and services. It's possible thisis being driven by tariff-related challenges for firms exposed to more discretionary spending in end-markets such as consumergoods or auto manufacturers, according to BofA Global Research. Uncertainty could curb equipment and software capexSince the 2008 global financial crisis, equipment and software investment has increased steadily and significantly, despite some declines in periods of economic slowdown (Exhibit 1). However, the share of chief financial officers (CFOs) foregoing equipmentpurchases due to heightened uncertainty has hit a near all-time high this year (Exhibit 2), according to Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (BEA) data. In addition to the sizeable impact on firms, the survey also highlighted considerable uncertainty surroundingthe breadth and duration of tariffs and resulting potential consequences for their firms.1 Exhibit2:The share of CFOs foregoing equipment purchases dueto heightened uncertainty is up from last yearCFO Survey: No plan to purchase equipment because of too much Exhibit1:Non-residential equipment and software investment hascontinued to increase, but falls during recessionary periodsNon-residential fixed investment: Equipment & software (seasonally adjusted annualized rate, $ billions chained to 2017, quarterly) uncertainty, Q1 (% of respondents, annual) Small business spending on technology services holding up for nowYet, for many firms, equipment and software investment increases both optimization growth and productivity, and, according to Bank of America internal data, is holding up for now among smaller companies (read more on this topic in our March piece,Apulse on productivity). And for small businesses in particular, technology services can improve efficiency in operations andbookkeeping. According to a 2025 Bank of America proprietary survey, more than 90% of small and mid-sized business owners plan to usedigital tools over the next five years. Accepting more forms of digital payment, improving employee workflow and implementingAI were the top uses cited (Exhibit 3). We find evidence of this in Bank of America small business payments data. Payments to technology services firms (refer to Notein Exhibit 4 for a definition) from small businesses increased in March, following negative growth through the first half of 2024(Exhibit 4). Up 11.1% year-over-year (YoY) in March, this outpaced overall small business payment growth in March, suggestingspending towards technology services is a priority for small firms. Moreover, user engagement with desktop software is a good proxy for small business software spend, and the March datasuggests a sustained improvement, according to BofA Global Research. Exhibit4: Payment growth to technology services firms from smallbusinesses has beenincreasingsince early 2024Small business payments to technology services (3-month moving Exhibit3:Accepting more forms of digital paymentswas cited asthe top use case for implementing digital toolsTop uses for implementing digital tools by small and mid-sized average, YoY%, monthly) businesses (% of respondents) Small construction firms had the strongest growth in Q1Looking at Bank of America payments data by sector, small construction firms had the strongest technology services payment YoY growth in the first quarter of 2025 (Exhibit 5). It’s possible these firms are leveraging digital tools and AI to increase theircapacity and capabilities to offset labor shortages, for example, by optimizing a portion of work hours.2 Exhibit5:Small construction firms had thestrongest YoYgrowth intechnology services payments in 1Q25Small business payments to technology services by industry in1Q25 (YoY%) Manufacturing, finance/real estate/insurance, and retail, on the other hand, showed among the slowest growth rates in techservices payments, potentially driven by tariff-related challenges. Furthermore, these industries tend to be more cyclical thanmost and therefore could be harder hit by heightened economic uncertainty. According to BofA Global Research, IT services with greater exposure to discretionary, consulting-oriented initiatives may besqueezed more. Specifically, the spike in economic uncer