恒生生物科技指数研究框架

2025/07/24 More English Reports on【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】https://internationalservice.citicsf.com QualificationNo.F3023159从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0013632投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F03108055从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0021478投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F03114773从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0022423投资咨询号 GuiChenxi桂晨曦CFAPhD HuangShuyao黄舒瑶 China Futures Research Framework https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Energy & Chemicals能化 Macro Economy宏观 20240201 China Crude Oil Futures Framework中国原油期货研究框架20240619 China LPG Research Framework中国液化石油气研究框架20240202 China PTA Futures Framework中国PTA期货研究框架20240725 China LLDPE Research Framework中国塑料期货研究框架20250123 China Methanol Futures Framework中国甲醇期货研究框架20240920 China Urea Research Framework中国尿素期货投研框架20241009 China SCFIS(EUROPE) Research Framework中国集运指数研究框架 20240717 China Macro Economy Framework中国宏观经济研究框架20240814 US Macro Economy Framework美国宏观经济研究框架 Equity Index股指 20240130 China Equity Index Futures Framework中国股指期货研究框架20241119 H.K. Equity Index Futures Framework港股期货分析框架 Agricultural Products农业 20250722 China Natural Rubber Research Framework中国天然橡胶期货研究框架20250425China Rapeseed Meal Research Framework中国菜粕研究框架20250521 China Rapeseed Oil Research Framework中国菜油研究框架20240208 China Live Hog Futures Framework中国生猪期货研究框架20250425 China Corn Price Long-cycle Review中国玉米价格长周期复盘 National Bond国债 20240131 China Government Bond Futures Framework中国国债期货研究框架20241016 US Treasury Bond Research Framework美国国债研究框架 Metals金属 20240205 China Gold Futures Framework中国黄金期货研究框架20240206 China Copper Futures Framework中国铜期货研究框架20240207 China Iron Ore Futures Framework中国铁矿石期货研究框架20240808 China Steels Research Framework中国钢材产业研究框架20240618 China Lithium Research Framework中国锂产业研究框架20241209 Silicon Metal Research Framework工业硅研究框架 Exchange Rate汇率 20250124 Exchange Rate Analysis Framework汇率分析框架20250221 Long-Term Framework of The US Dollar Index美元指数长周期框架 Abstract ▫The Hang Seng Biotech Index(HSHKBIO)includes a totalof 50 constituent stocks,primarily consisting of innovativepharmaceuticalcompanies,newbiopharmaceuticalenterprises,andbiotechfirms.Amongthe50constituentstocks,themarketcapofAHsharesaccountsforonly20%,presentingnotableinvestmentscarcity.Currently,thereareveryfewopen-endedproductstrackingtheHangSengBiotechnologyIndexonthemarket,withonly6ChineseinstitutionshavingissuedrelatedpassiveETFs.AsofApril2025,thetotalfundsizehadamountedtoapproximately6.65billionRMB. ▫ForeigninvestorsownthepricingpowerfortheHangSengBiotechnologyIndex.ByApril2025,theirshare-holdingratioremainedaround70%.Duetoforeigninvestors’strongpricingpower,theAHpremiumofbiotechstocksispronetobeinfluencedbyforeignsentiment.Thethreemaindrivingfactorsare:1)U.S.Bondyields:PharmaceuticalcompaniesprimarilyrelyonU.S.dollarsforfinancingandinvestment.Arise in U.S.Treasuryyields tendstodampentheirinvestment enthusiasm,while also suppressingforeigninvestors’valuationandriskappetiteforemergingindustriesintheequitymarket;2)Creditspreads:Whenthemacroeconomicenvironmentdeteriorates,policyuncertaintyincreases,orindustryprofitexpectationsaredamaged,investorstendstobetondomesticliquidityeasingandincentivepoliciesforpharmaceuticalcompanies,therebyboostingtheirstockprices;3)Marketliquidity:WhenA-sharesandHongKongstocksmarketliquiditydeteriorateduetorisk-aversion,foreigninvestorswillprioritizereducingholdingsinHongKongstockswitharelativelytightliquidity,leadingtoexcessivepricedeclinesinHongKongstockscomparedtoA-shares. ▫Downsideriskfactors:1)RiseinU.S.Treasurybondyields;2)IntensificationoftheU.S.BiosecurityActandtariffsanctions;3)Pharmaceuticals'performanceconversionprogressfallsshortofexpectations;. 报告摘要 ▫恒生生物科技指数(HSHKBIO)共计包含50支成分股，主要包括创新药企、新型生物制药企业以及生物科技公司。在50支成分股中，AH股市值占比仅为20%，具备较明显的投资稀缺性。目前场内跟踪恒生生物科技指数的开放式产品较少，仅国内6家机构发布了相关的指数型ETF，截止2025年4月基金规模总计约66.5亿元人民币。 ▫外资对恒生生物科技指数掌握定价权，截止2025年4月持股占比维持在70%左右。由于外资较强的定价权，导致生物科技股的AH溢价容易受外资情绪影响。在指数驱动因素和AH溢价的影响因素上，主要关注以下三点：1）美债收益率：药企投融资以美元为主，美债收益率上升容易降低药企投资积极性，同时也会不利于外资对新兴产业的估值和风险偏好；2）信用利差：当宏观经济环境恶化、政策不确定性加剧、行业盈利预期受损时，资金越会博弈国内流动性宽松以及药企专项激励政策，从而推升药企股价；3）市场流动性：当资金因风险厌恶对A股和港股的投资意愿减弱时，外资会优先考虑减持流动性较紧缺的港股，从而导致港股相对A股出现超跌。 ▫下行风险因素：1）美债收益率上升；2）美国《生物安全法案》及关税制裁加剧；3）医药业绩转化进度不及预期。 目录CONTENT Introduction 基础介绍 1.1 HS Biotech Index Demonstrates the Strongest Effectiveness ▫HK’shealthcaresectorhasthreemajorindustryindices:1)HSHealthcareIndex(68constituents),2)HSBiotechnologyIndex(50),and3)HSInnovativeDrugIndex(37).Thefirsttwoindicessharesignificantoverlapintopholdings,resultinginhighlong-termcorrelation,whiletheInnovativeDrugIndexfocusesexclusivelyonpure-playinnovativedrugcompanies. ▫Methodology-wise,theBiotechIndexrebalancesquarterly—morefrequentlythanthesemi-annualadjustmentsoftheothertwo—enablingittotrackleadingHongKonghealthcarestocksmoreeffectively. 1.1恒生生物科技指数 ▫港股医药相关有三大行业指数：①恒生医疗保健指数（68个成分股）、②恒生生物科技指数（50个成分股）、③恒生创新药指数（37个成分股）。前两大指数的重仓成分股较为接近，长期走势相关性较高，而恒生创新药指数仅专注细分的创新药业务。 ▫编制方式上，恒生生物科技指数每季度调仓，比每半年调仓的其他两大指数更迅速，可更有效跟踪港股医药龙头走势。 1.2 Focus on Drugs and Medical Devices ▫Thepharmaceuticalstocksin