氯碱周报 | 2025-07-27
请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告第2页第2页PVC：短期宏观情绪主导，关注政策推进情况市场要闻与重要数据价格方面：截至2025-07-25，期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5373元/吨（+135）；华东基差-223元/吨（-55）；华南基差-253元/吨（-90）。现货价格：华东电石法报价5150元/吨（+80）；华南电石法报价5120元/吨（+45）；华东乙烯法报价：5150元/吨（+50）；华南乙烯法报价：5150元/吨（+0）。供应方面：上游电石平均开工负荷63.65%（-1.06%）；PVC开工率76.79%（-0.80%）；PVC电石法开工率79.25%（-0.46%）；PVC乙烯法开工率70.27%（-1.68%）。停车及检修造成的损失量在13.65万吨（+0.47）需求方面：PVC下游综合开工率在41.88%（+1.77%），其中PVC下游管材开工率在32.52%（-1.23%），PVC下游型材开工率38.00%（+3.45%），PVC下游薄膜开工率77.00%（+5.33%）。下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.54万吨（+9.92）。生产利润方面：截至2025-07-25，陕西兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；山东电石价格2780元/吨（-25）；兰炭生产毛利-53.15元/吨（-11.75），西北电石生产毛利-309.00元/吨（+0.00）；PVC电石法单品种生产毛利-133.62元/吨（+181.25）；PVC乙烯法单品种生产毛利-505.79元/吨（+88.75）；PVC出口利润-19美元/吨（-3）库存方面：PVC厂内库存35.71万吨（-1.04）；PVC社会库存42.70万吨（+1.60），其中PVC华东社会库存37.82万吨（+1.41），PVC华南社会库存4.88万吨（+0.19）市场分析“反内卷”与老旧装置整改是影响盘面走势的主旋律，但周五夜盘焦煤系等普遍大幅回调，市场情绪有所减弱，PVC盘面跟随大幅回落，短期盘面仍以宏观情绪为主导，后期仍需关注政策推进情况。基本面未有明显改善，上游开工高位叠加7-8月新投产预期，供应端压力仍大。需求端下游制品开工率同比偏弱，企业按需采购；出口签单环比减少，PVC社会库存预期延续累积。成本端电石市场未有明显提振，乙烯价格持稳，成本端难有明显支撑。本轮上涨带动氯碱综合利润大幅上升，后期仍有压缩氯碱利润的压力。策略单边：观望跨期：V09-01跨期反套跨品种：无风险国内宏观政策扰动；印度出口政策不确定性。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告目录一、烧碱价格&价差...................................................................................................................................6二、PVC价格&价差...................................................................................................................................8三、成本利润..........................................................................................................................................10四、烧碱供应..........................................................................................................................................11五、液氯价格与液氯下游..........................................................................................................................12六、PVC供应..........................................................................................................................................14七、烧碱下游需求....................................................................................................................................15八、PVC下游需求....................................................................................................................................17九、烧碱&PVC库存数据...........................................................................................................................18图表图1：烧碱主力合约....................................................................................................................................................................6图2：液碱32%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图3：液碱50%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图4：液碱32%江苏价格............................................................................................................................................................6图5：片碱99%新疆价格............................................................................................................................................................6图6：液碱32%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图7：液碱50%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图8：山东50%-32%液碱...........................................................................................................................................................7图9：50%液碱广东-山东...........................................................................................................................................................7图10：32%液碱江苏-山东.........................................................................................................................................................7图11：SH01-SH05......................................................................................................................................................................7图12：SH05-SH09......................................................................................................................................................................8图13：SH09-SH01......................................................................................................................................................................8图14：PVC主力合约..................................................................................................................................................................8图15：PVC电石法华东价格......................................................................................................................................................8图16：PVC电石法华南价格............................
