情绪有望回暖，颠簸依旧存在

目录1、一周复盘及观点...................................................................................................................................................................51.1本周走势复盘：国债期货大幅下跌...................................................................................................................................51.2下周观点：情绪有望回暖，颠簸依旧存在.......................................................................................................................52、利率债周度观察...................................................................................................................................................................62.1一级市场...............................................................................................................................................................................62.2二级市场...............................................................................................................................................................................73、国债期货...............................................................................................................................................................................93.1价格及成交、持仓...............................................................................................................................................................93.2基差、IRR............................................................................................................................................................................103.3跨期、跨品种价差.............................................................................................................................................................114、资金面周度观察.................................................................................................................................................................125、海外周度观察.....................................................................................................................................................................146、通胀高频数据周度观察....................................................................................................................................................157、投资建议.............................................................................................................................................................................158、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................15 2期货研究报告 图表目录图表1：当周下周国内重点数据一览............................................................................................................................................................5图表2：本周利率债净融资额为2091.69亿元...............................................................................................................................................6图表3：本周国债净融资额小幅下降............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：本周地方债净融资额上升................................................................................................................................................................7图表5：本周同业存单净融资额下降............................................................................................................................................................7图表6：本周国债收益率上行........................................................................................................................................................................7图表7：关键期限国债估值变化....................................................................................................................................................................7图表8：10Y-1Y和30Y-10Y利差均走阔，10Y-5Y收窄...............................................................................................................................8图表9：隐含税率上升....................................................................................................................................................................................8图表10：分机构净买卖时序：国债...............................................................................................................................................................8图表11：分机构净买卖时序：政金债...........................................................................................................................................................9图表12：国债期货大幅下跌...........................................................................................................................................................................9图表13：国债期货总成交量...........................................................................................................................................................................9图表14：期货总持仓量...................................................................................................