先进可持续航空燃料的行业视角：规模化推广的障碍

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis study was generously supported by Climate Imperative. The authors especiallythank all industry participants who contributed to and reviewed this study as well asGonca Seber and Deniz Rhode of the ICCT and Aoife O’Leary of Opportunity Green fortheir helpful reviews.International Council on Clean Transportation1500 K Street NW, Suite 650Washington, DC 20005communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT© 2025 International Council on Clean Transportation (ID 373) iICCTREPORT|INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES ON ADVANCED SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELEXECUTIVE SUMMARYAchieving emission reductions and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) deployment goals inthe European Union, United Kingdom, and United States will require rapidly expandingthe production of low carbon intensity SAF. A limited supply of sustainable feedstockfor currently commercialized SAF pathways means the majority of this production willrely on advanced technologies not yet deployed at commercial scale, namely thosethat use emerging technologies and scalable, non-food feedstocks.To better understand the barriers to commercialization of these pathways, we surveyedtechnology providers and advanced SAF project developers on challenges related totechnological readiness, feedstock availability, fuel demand, finance, and policy. Wefound that advanced SAF facility deployment faces three key challenges:High capital costs.Establishing advanced SAF facilities at commercial scale isextremely capital-intensive; a single facility may represent a multi-billion-dollarinvestment. This contributes to an overall cost of production much higher than thatof fossil jet fuel. Raising sufficient capital in most cases also requires debt financing,but debt providers are risk-averse and often unwilling to invest in pioneering facilitiessupplying an immature market.First-of-a-kind technology deployment.The commercial-scale deployment ofadvanced SAF technologies is still in its infancy, making it difficult to accuratelyassess project economics. Funding the substantial cost of pre-final investmentdecision engineering work is a significant challenge for project developers, in partbecause of the uncertainty of overall production costs prior to conducting thesedetailed engineering studies. Engineering procurement and construction firmsresponsible for building these facilities may also be unwilling or unable to guaranteeperformance, increasing the risk to investors. Performance risks are highest forlarge-capacity facilities.Offtake and price uncertainty.Because advanced SAF production is much moreexpensive than both fossil jet fuel and first-generation SAF, the success of advancedSAF projects relies heavily on policy-driven demand. Yet, because the market forpolicy-compliant fuel remains immature and the political resolve to maintain currentmandates is unproven, the future trajectory of advanced SAF prices is highly uncertain.Project developers depend on binding, long-term offtake agreements with fuel usersfor this reason. Fuel users, though, are often reluctant to lock in long-term prices thatmay be disadvantageous if competitors can secure policy-compliant fuel at a lowercost in the future.POLICY CONSIDERATIONSBased on this feedback, we identified a two-stage policy framework that could beapplied in the European Union, United Kingdom, and United States. During the initial“runway” phase of advanced SAF deployment, a government-backed revenue certaintymechanism could guarantee an offtake price for qualifying advanced fuel producers.This would eliminate the need for long-term purchase commitments from fuel usersand provide assurance to investors, particularly providers of debt financing, thatproject returns are secure so long as fuel production is realized.This revenue certainty mechanism could function in concert with a longer-term “takeoff”phase of advanced SAF deployment, in which a SAF mandate or comparable demand-side policies would promote a healthy and growing market for fuel. The key premise ofthis phase is that once the runway phase has enabled a certain level of advanced SAFdeployment and a better understanding of technology costs and market dynamics,demand-side policies can support further investment in advanced SAF production. iiICCTREPORT|INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES ON ADVANCED SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELThe United Kingdom, European Union, and United States could each take steps toadapt existing policies to this framework:United Kingdom. A recently finalized SAF mandate and upcoming revenue certaintymechanism in the United Kingdom are well aligned with the policy framework outlinedin this paper. Looking ahead, key issues for UK policymakers will include ensuring therevenue certainty mechanism is established in a timely manner and that it sufficientlyde-risks the financing of advanced SAF facilities. Due to high electricity prices,targeted measures may be required to support commercially viable UK-based power-to-liquids SAF production.European Union. While ReFuelEU Avia