Gov2020：政府未来之旅

4INTRODUCTION12DRIVERSDemographic DriversEconomic DriversSocietal DriversCyber-Physical SystemsDigital TechnologiesExponentials24MEGA SHIFTSMega Shifts30TRENDSEducation2020Energy and Environment2020Health Care2020Human Services2020Law & Justice2020Transportation2020 IntroductionWelcome to Government2020. The purposeof this project is to help leaders from all sectorsmake sense of the rapidly changing demographic,societal, economic, and technological trendsshaping our future. Gov2020isn’t a crystal ball butit does pull together some of our best Deloitteresearch and expertise from across the globe tostart a discussion on what is probable, and evenmore importantly, what is possible for those whoare most willing to embrace change.Gov2020is meant to be a starting point forgovernments wishing to engage with the future.It provides policy makers with some provocativeideas about what is possible and a catalyst toevaluate whether they are ready to embrace afuture that should be very different from today.Effectively responding to the drivers of changeand shifting needs of citizens will challengevirtually every process, system and structure ofgovernment.Gov2020is the culmination of an extensiveexploration of the drivers that are influencingthe future of education, human services, defense,transportation and more and the impact thoseforces of change might have on government andsociety at large.Gov2020brings together in one easily navigableplace a rich source of analysis, video and creativevisualizations about the future of government. Onthe website you can explore:•39driversthat will influence the waygovernment operates and serves its citizens•194trendsthat represent the shifts that arelikely or at least possible by2020•15videosdepicting major new developments,from the future of government work to theimpact of3D printing•15infographicsillustrating new capabilitieslike digital age transportation and a sensor-enabled world4Introduction This project draws from hundreds of interviewsconducted by dozens of colleagues over a multi-year period with leading experts from around theworld. Much of the research resulted in in-depthDeloitte studies covering everything from thetransition to digital age transportation to what asystem of virtual incarceration might look like.The confluence of several factors—demographic,socio-economic, and technological—will influencewhat happens in the future and ultimately, howgovernments evolve to meet citizens’ changingneeds. Understanding these factors or ‘drivers ofchange’ and their potential impact is the first stepin preparing for the future.The Drivers of ChangeDemographic Drivers:Demographic changeswill have a significant impact in2020. Theaging population will dominate many policyand workforce discussions in the West, whilepopulation growth will continue to slow acrossmost developing nations. The world is in themidst of a massive, long-term shift in wealth,economic power and population growth fromWest to East. As Asian areas outgrow their westerncounterparts, new political, social and consumerconstituencies start flexing their power on theworld stage.Globally, the improved socio-economic status ofwomen will bring billions more people into theformal workforce in the future. Megacities burgeonacross the globe, while increased global migrationleads to mingling cultural identities and the rise ofthe truly global citizen.Societal Drivers:Society grapples with theundesirable effects — security and privacyconcerns — of a hyper-connected, digital lifestyle.Governments are faced with a balancing act:using the latest technologies to meet the risingexpectations of hyper-connected citizens, whilestill reaching those offline. Citizen-consumers, empowered by information and technology,play a bigger role in societal problem solving aswell as in fighting corruption. Unprecedentedadvances in health care, neuroscience, technologycomputing, nanotechnology and learning begin toallow human beings to expand their physical andmental faculties. However, potential innovationsthat enhance cognitive capacity also pose newregulatory and ethical challenges for business,government, social institutions and internationalorganizations.Economic Drivers:Building off the earlybitcoin example, currencies will take on newdigital and data-based forms in the near future.Social consciousness surfaces as a commontheme, with more organizations and citizenscontributing to societal change and driving arenewed sense of openness, innovation andempowerment. Governments grapple withfiscal stress, infrastructure bottlenecks and risingincome inequality among citizens. But even whiledisparities between rich and poor persist, scarcityof basic requirements such as food, water, energy,healthcare, housing and education will begin to getaddressed as technology raises the basic standardsof living for many. Climate change remains a major concern in2020and differing national policies concerning the saleand ownership of natural resources become a to