积极治理：加速变革背景下的政策和战略设计

Policy and Strategy Design in the Context of Accelerating ChangeINDEX04INTRODUCTION04PART I: THE EVOLVINGPOLICY AND STRATEGYLANDSCAPE: ASSESSINGTHE PRIMARY FORCES OFCHANGE12PART II: ROBUST POLICYAND STRATEGY: THEEMERGING DESIGNREQUIREMENTS15PART III: TOWARD ANEVOLUTIONARY POLICYAND STRATEGY DESIGNPROCESS22CONCLUSION PROACTIVE GOVERNANCE:Policy and Strategy Design in the Context of Accelerating ChangeINTRODUCTIONThepolitical volatility we are witnessing aroundthe world is the result of pressures that have beenbuilding for decades.These upheavals demonstrate,among other things of course, the growinggapinmany countries between citizen expectationsand the ability of government institutions to meetthem. The combination of growing fiscal constraintsand accelerating technological advances driven bythe private sector have exposed the brittleness oftraditionalgovernment structures and processesbased on centralized decision-making, internalizationof capabilities and an aversion to transparency andcompetition. Not only do governments that cannotovercome the inertia of these models risk growingirrelevanceand diminished legitimacy,they aredirectly constraining the ability of their societies tokeep pace with the changes around them.There isno government function that offers a more powerfulopportunity to reverse these dynamics than thepolicyand strategy development process.In anenvironment of intensifying evolutionary pressure,public policy must and can generate adaptive capacityby anticipating and harnessing change in the service ofcitizens and national interests.This paper links the forces of change shaping theglobalstrategic environment to the resultingdesign requirements or attributes that policies andstrategies must feature to be effective in the emergingenvironment and then outlines the core institutionalcapabilities necessary to meet these requirements.That is, it seeks to answer three fundamental questions:•What are the forces of change that are most signifi-cantly disrupting the strategic environment facingpolicy-makers?•What are the new requirements that individual pol-icies and strategies must increasingly meet, whatnew attributes must they feature to be effective inthe emerging environment?•What institutional capabilities do governments re-quire in order to be able to create consistently poli-cies and strategies that meet these daunting require-ments?While there is no single model applicable to allgovernment entities, there are a number of emergingcapabilities and process design elements that leadersacross geographies and levels of government willbenefit from considering in order to build institutionalresilience,advance national interests and drivesocietal progress. Building this capacity for proactivegovernance will be of decisive importance in what willbe both an increasingly competitive and volatile worldand one driven by innovation and rich in opportunitiesfor those disciplined enough to seize them.PART I: THE EVOLVING POLICY AND STRATEGYLANDSCAPE: ASSESSING THE PRIMARY FORCES OFCHANGEThestrategicoperatingenvironmentfacinggovernmentdecision-makers is in the midst ofarguably unprecedented disruption. Given the sheervelocity of change, leaders responsible for developingand implementing public policy and strategy mustassess the future environment as potentially radicallydistinct from the present. This is a function of thevery essence of policy-making. Policy and strategyboth serve to guide complex actions across diversestakeholders to achieve a set of desired outcomes inthe future. Before we explore the ways in which thepolicy and strategy development environment arechanging for government leaders, it will be useful tobegin with working definitionsof these two termsprovisionally for the purposes of this paper.A “policy” generally refers to a principle or guidancemechanism for decisions. For the purposes of thispaper and the government context on which it isfocused, policy can be defined as the official guidingorientation or position of a state with respect to agiven issue or set of issues. Policy ‘software’ can beinstantiated in laws, rules, the speeches of the heads ofinstitutions (policy-makers) and various other forms,public or non-public. Policy defines the parameterswithin which a given government will act (reactively Policy and Strategy Design in the Context of Accelerating Changegoals and objectives will be achieved (in particularbased on explicit consideration of internal resourcesand external conditions). Although not central to thedefinition, strategy also ideally includes monitoringperformanceagainst objectives and adaptingaccordingly. Strategy often necessarily and correctlyoverlapswith policy(as defined above)in thedefinition of goals and objectives.Thedevelopmentofpolicyandstrategywouldbehighlychallenging even in a world of perfect information,rational actors and predictable operating conditionsgiven the sheer technical complexity decision-makersmust increasingly address.We, however, do notliv