金砖国家与西方：未来十年的展望

The World Governments Summit is a global platform dedicated toshaping the future of governments worldwide. Each year, the Summitsets the agenda for the next generation of governments with a focuson how they can harness innovation and technology to solve universalchallenges facing humanity.The World Governments Summit is a knowledge exchange center atthe intersection of government, futurism, technology, and innovation.It functions as a thought leadership platform and networking hub forpolicymakers, experts and pioneers in human development.The Summit is a gateway to the future as it functions as the stage foranalysis of future trends, concerns, and opportunities facing humanity.It is also an arena to showcase innovations, best practice, and smartsolutions to inspire creativity to tackle these future challenges.To Inspireand EnableThe Next Generationof Governments02World Governments Summit Table of ContentsTopicsScenario MappingSituation AnalysisOverviewThe Rise Of BRICSFrom BRICS To BRICS+Scenario 1: BRICS As A Political Counterweight, A New Multilateral Order?Annual SummitsInternational Peace And Security CouncilTrade And Development AgencyEnvironment Program, Or A BRICS COP?Economic And Financial InstitutionsScenario 2: BRICS++ With Exponential Economic GrowthLocal Currencies TradeOil Market RegulationMineral TradeScenario 3: BRICS’ DisintegrationInter-Member ComplicationsEconomic DivergenceChanges In LeadershipPromoting The Integration Of BRICS Within ExistingMultilateral Organizations And AlliancesIncreasing Complementarity Between Global Financial InstitutionsWith A Focus On Filling The Gaps, Especially In Developing RegionsAdvancing Inclusive Conflict Resolution And Legal CooperationConclusionsPolicy Recommendations 090505060710111314151617181919202122232526272824 Situation AnalysisOverviewAlternative models of global cooperationare increasingly needed as the internationalcommunity navigates and reconceptualizesthe future of effective multilateralgovernance. Regional security concernsare pushing the need for new frameworksto advance global alliances, centered oncontext-driven coordination, mainly inregions like Latin America, the Middle East,and North Africa. Following the expansionof BRICS – which stands for Brazil, Russia,India, China, and South Africa - Argentina,Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and theUnited Arab Emirates (UAE) alongside thefounding members Brazil, Russia, India,China, and South Africa now constituteapproximately 37% of the global GDP atpurchasing power parity.1However, therecent statement of Argentina’s newlyelected President to withdraw the country’sintended membership in the bloc might alterthe situation.2The economic influence ofBRICS and its National Development Bankcould drive global economic growth andreshape institutions like the World Bank andInternational Monetary Fund (IMF). If BRICSmembers manage to agree on a commoncurrency in the next decade, this would notonly speed up the de-dollarization processinternationally, but will also have massiveripple effects on the global economy as awhole.The BRICS group did not emerge out of anatural alliance, but from an idea. This ideacame from a Goldman Sachs economist,Jim O’Neill in a 2001 paper titledBuildingBetter Global Economic BRICs.3In economic,financial, commercial, intellectual, and mediaspheres, it then subsequently developedinto a referred-to category for analysis.4 O’Neill saw that Brazil, Russia, India, andChina were on the path to becoming majoreconomic powerhouses with the potential tooutcompete Western economies.More than twenty years since the reportwas published, Russia and Brazil havegone through significant economictransformations. China is also a notablecase study in economic evolution followinga period of a gradual and cautious economicliberalization. Collectively, the rise of the blochas been quiet the story to take note of. LastMarch, BRICS’ global gross domestic product(GDP), as measured by purchasing powerparity, surpassed the G7.5According to recentstatistics, the bloc accounts for 46.5% of theworld’s population.6Across 15 years of cooperation, BRICS held15 summits, agreed on more than 933commitments, created around 60 intra-group institutions, and built a wide-rangingnetwork of think tanks, businesses, tradeunions, and business alliance dialoguesthat include women, youth, civilians, andparliamentarians.7Despite many challenges– including disputes between membercountries, the COVID-19 pandemic, andthe subsequent socioeconomic crises –BRICS was able to sustain itself and growin no small part due to its dense networks,continuity, and consensus-based approach,although the latter was seen by some asrestricting.This report proposes a number of policyscenarios to consider for the future of BRICS,and what its expanded role could mean forboth the future of multilateralism and North-South relations. The Rise Of BRICSThe evolution of BRICS went from an attemptto increase investments in the world’sup-and-comi