评估商业信心：商业景气指数在经济预测中的作用

WORLD GOVERNMENTS SUMMITTable of Content1.INTRODUCTION•Development and Significance of the Business Climate Index (BCI)2.RATIONALE FOR DEVELOPING THE BCI•Economic Indicator•Sectoral Insights•Policy Formulation•Risk Management•International Comparison•Addressing Data Gaps3.METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH•Surveys and Data Collection•Diffusion Index Calculation•Sectoral Analysis4.HOW THE BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDEX AIDS BUSINESSESAND GOVERNMENTS•Benefits for Businesses•Strategic Decision-making•Risk Management•Market Positioning•Investment Planning•Global Competition and AI Adoption•Benefits for Governments•Policy Formulation and Economic Forecasting•Assessment of Major Events•Impact of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements(CEPAs)•Sustainability Initiatives and COP28•Sectoral Support•International Competitiveness•Regulatory Communication•Simplification of Administrative Processess5.CONCLUSION•A Catalyst for Economic Growth and Policy Innovation 357916 INTRODUCTION Development and Significanceof the Business Climate Index(BCI)Business sentiment indicators have been used to analyse and forecasteconomic developments since the inception of business cycle research.Naturally, special attention has been directed to leading indicators due totheir potential contribution to business cycle forecasting. Many Europeanscientists have analysed a wider range of qualitative, monetary, and otherquantitative indicators and their potential to improve forecasts of euro-area industrial production. They concluded that, among all indicatorsets, the qualitative Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the EuropeanCommission performs best and fulfils all examined criteria of a reliableleading indicator, showing forecast improvement for up to three monthsahead. Taylor and McNabb (2007) found that the business confidenceindicator was a good predictor of turning points in the business cycles offour EU countries. Hansson et al. (2005) successfully forecast Sweden’sGDP growth using business sentiment data. Moreover, Acemoglu andScott (1994) have demonstrated thatbusiness sentiment is a reliable predictorof economic activity. Positive businesssentiment typically fosters a favourablebusiness environment, encouraginginvestment in ongoing economicexpansion, which in turn leads to higherfuture economic growth. In contrast,negative sentiment resulting from anadverse shock (e.g. political or externalshock) in a market that has not yetmatured in terms of its macroeconomicindicators tends to discourage investmentand consumption. Investors in such a market are likely to shift theirinvestments to other markets with more favourable expectations andstronger sentiment.Therefore, in 2011, Dubai Chambers developed the Business Climate Index(BCI) as a tool to systematically assess and monitor the confidence levelsof businesses in Dubai. This index serves as a critical macroeconomicindicator, providing insights into the current and future business climate,which is essential for informed decision-making by policymakers andbusiness leaders. Dubai’s economic growth, driven by sectors such astrade, finance, and real estate, underscores the importance of robustindicators like the BCI to guide policy decisions.WORLD GOVERNMENTS SUMMIT RATIONALE FORDEVELOPING BCI WORLD GOVERNMENTS SUMMIT 6 METHODOLOGICALAPPROACH WORLD GOVERNMENTS SUMMITSURVEYS AND DATA COLLECTIONBusinesses are surveyed regularly to gather qualitative data on theirperceptions of current conditions and future expectations. This includesaspects such as business conditions, investment plans, employment changes,and cost pressures. On average, the number of respondents is around 700, butdue to increasing trust among the Dubai business community, participation hasmore than doubled, rising from over 500 in Q1 2022 to over 1,200 in Q1 2025.This significant increase reflects growing confidence in the survey process andunderscores the value of the BCI as a trusted tool for business insights.DIFFUSION INDEX CALCULATIONResponses are quantified based on business size and sectoral importance togenerate sentiment indices. These indices indicate whether business sentimentis improving, stable, or deteriorating. The basepoint of the index is the average ofNet Expectation Scores (NES) for the general business climate between 2011 and2016. An index above 100 suggests an expected improvement in the businessclimate for the next quarter, while an index below 100 suggests a deterioration.SECTORAL ANALYSISThe BCI is often broken down by the major contributing sectors of Dubai’seconomy to provide detailed insights into the performance and outlook ofdifferent industries within the economy.Source: Dubai Chambers Business Climate Index 8 9HOW THE BUSINESSSENTIMENT INDEXAIDS BUSINESSESAND GOVERNMENTS WORLD GOVERNMENTS SUMMITThe Business Climate Index (BCI) plays a pivotalrole in supporting both businesses and governmentsby providing critical insights into the current and futurebusiness climate. This index serves as a valuab