CBO在评估气候变化和气候变化政策中的作用（英）

Presentation to the Department of Energy and the United States Energy Association,Workshop on Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon TransitionNovember 1, 2022Nicholas ChaseMicroeconomic Studies DivisionCBO’s Role in Assessing Climate Change and Climate Change PolicyFor information about the workshop, see https://usea.org/event/macroeconomic-effects-low-carbon-transition-workshop-modeling-challenges-and-approaches. 1CBO was established to give the Congress a stronger role in budget matters.The agency provides analysis of budgetary and economic issues that is objective and impartial. It is strictly nonpartisan and does not make policy recommendations.CBO follows processes that are specified in statute or that it has developed in concert with the budget committees and Congressional leadership. CBO’s chief responsibility under the Budget Act is to help the budget committees with the matters under their jurisdiction.CBO’s Role 2The Effects of Climate Change and Climate Change Policy on the Federal Budget 3See Congressional Budget Office, Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and of Potential Legislative Responses to It(April 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/57019. Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and Efforts to Address ItClimate change results in physical effects that reduce economic output.Potential consequences exist for revenues, mandatory spending, and discretionary spending.Adaptation and mitigation could reduce physical and budgetary effects. 4Effects of Climate Change 5See Congressional Budget Office, Potential Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: Implications for the Federal Budget (June 2016), www.cbo.gov/publication/51518.Estimates of Hurricane DamageThe cost of hurricane damage is expected to increase more than the economy will grow.Expected annual damage in 2016 was 0.16 percent of GDP.Expected annual damage in 2075 is 0.22percent of GDP. 6See Congressional Budget Office, The 2021Long-Term Budget Outlook (March2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/56977; and Evan Herrnstadt and Terry Dinan, CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output, Working Paper 2020-06(Congressional Budget Office, September2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56505.How Climate Change Is Expected to Change the Level of Real Gross Domestic Product in 2050Climate change will reduce the growth rate of real GDP from 2020 to 2050 by an average of 0.03 percentage points.That difference in annual growth accumulates to a 1.0percent reduction in the projected level of real GDP in 2050.Climate change will have effects on people’s well-being that are not measured in GDP. 7See Congressional Budget Office, Wildfires (June2022), www.cbo.gov/publication/57970.How Wildfires Affect the Federal BudgetWildfires affect the federal budget through spending on fire suppression, forest management, disaster assistance, and other activities. The 5-year moving average for federal spending on wildfire suppression has tripled in recent years.Climate change has created hotter and drier conditions that are conducive to longer and more severe wildfire seasons. 8Effects of Policies That Would Address Climate Change