中国AI：H20芯片供应重启唤醒沉睡的巨人

MorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+CharlieChanEquityAnalystCharlie.Chan@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GaryYuEquityAnalystGary.Yu@morganstanley.comMorganStanley&Co.LLCJosephMooreEquityAnalystJoseph.Moore@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+SharonShihEquityAnalystSharon.Shih@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+YangLiuEquityAnalystYang.Liu@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+HowardKaoEquityAnalystHoward.Kao@morganstanley.comDerrickYangEquityAnalystDerrick.Yang@morganstanley.comDanielYen,CFAEquityAnalystDaniel.Yen@morganstanley.comMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+DuanLiuEquityAnalystDuan.Liu@morganstanley.comDaisyDai,CFAEquityAnalystDaisy.Dai@morganstanley.comLydiaLinEquityAnalystLydia.Lin@morganstanley.comTomTangEquityAnalystTom.Tang@morganstanley.comMichelleKimResearchAssociateMichelle.Kim1@morganstanley.comMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount. +88622730-1725+8522848-6918+1212761-7516+88622730-2865+8522239-1911+88622730-2989+88622730-2862+88622730-2863+8522239-7357+8522848-7310+8522239-1572+8523963-1860+8523963-0183 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMason WayneResearch AssociateMason.Wayne@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+Joanne LauResearch AssociateJoanne.CY.Lau@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Lucas WangResearch AssociateLucas.Wang@morganstanley.comIrene YenResearch AssociateIrene.Yen@morganstanley.comSamantha ChenResearch AssociateSamantha.Chen@morganstanley.comGreater China Technology SemiconductorsAsia PacificIndustry View 2partners on the projects, including Wistron, FII and Lenovo.Not-so-good news for China's domestic GPU makers, but local GPU developmentefforts will continue.We think this news could be negative for Chinese GPUfoundry SMIC if domestic GPU vendors Huawei and Cambricon lose market sharewith China's cloud service providers. We now expect China's local GPU self-sufficiency to reach only 39% in 2027. However, while resumption of H20 is aconstructive step forward for near-term China compute constraints, we do not seeChina's efforts on self-sufficiency slowing down amid geopolitical uncertainties. Attractive Morgan Stanley ResearchSix Key Charts for China AI and SemisExhibit 1:Total China AI capex by top CSPs-501001502002503003504004502022202320242025E2026E2027ERmb bnAlibabaTencentByteDanceBaiduKuaishouMeituanSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimatesExhibit 2:China consumer usage from AI uplift-100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002025eE-commSource: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimatesExhibit 3:China AI GPU source by vendor in 2025e; Nvidiaseen as the major sourceSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimatesExhibit 4:Nvidia's H20 has greater memory bandwidthSource: Nvidia, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 5:We expect China's cloud AI TAM to be US$48bn in2027-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00020212022202320242025e2026e2027eChina cloud AI TAM (US$ mn)Source: Gartner, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimatesExhibit 6:We now expect Chinese local GPUs to fulfill only 39%of China's AI demand by 202711%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2021Source: Company data, Gartner, Factset, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates 4Executive Summary China's AI developers can pursue their Plan A – buy more chips and speed up AIapplication development:In our Blue Paper report,China – AI: The Sleeping GiantAwakens, we noted a Plan A for China's Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) in the event thatshipments of NVIDIA's GPUs (e.g., H20) to China were allowed again. In that scenario,China's CSPs would have more computing resources to deploy for AI applications. Thisnow appears to be happening, with announcements by NVIDIA and the US commercesecretary.Our Internet analyst for China, Gary Yu, believes that China's AI capex will therefore stayon track. He even sees some slight upside if there is sufficient chip supply from USvendors in the coming quarters.Just recently right after the H20 became available, our industry checks indicated stronginterest by China CSPs in ordering H20 chips, based on its good software compatibility. Onthe other hand, we noticed that Huawei's new GPU 910C, which was supposed to be H20'sstrong competition, was not available yet.To the US semiconductor industry (covered by Joe Moore), a potential US$50bnrevenue opportunity is now reopening:According to Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA(covered by Joe Moore), the estimated AI chip service addr