财通证券固收专题报告

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师孟万林SAC证书编号：S0160525030002mengwl@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com联系人李飞丹lifd@ctsec.com相关报告1.《利率|看股做债？关系搞反了》2025-07-202.《流动性｜匿名隔夜资金价格回归1.35%》2025-07-193.《高频｜开工率大多回升，关注企业利润修复》2025-07-19 核心观点体下行，3年及以内中短久期信用利差压降更加明显。位。❖后市如何展望？降低，信用债市场负面扰动或将延后至年末。金。贷款需求的转移，难以改变“资产荒”的状态。有压降的空间。❖如何参与？信用债投资上，建议继续保持久期。票息资产将愈发难寻。券要更加注重债券流动性。❖发展超预期 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1市场回顾：收益率下行，利差继续压降...............................................................................................51.1市场表现如何？..................................................................................................................................51.2理财配置回升，保险买入力量仍较强，基金配置有所下降..........................................................61.3成交占比：中长久期仍处于高位......................................................................................................82市场展望：负面扰动概率降低...............................................................................................................92.1负面扰动概率降低..............................................................................................................................92.2科创债继续为市场贡献净融资........................................................................................................123信用买什么？.........................................................................................................................................133.1交易看高等级二永，票息看弱资质城投........................................................................................133.2普信票息更占优................................................................................................................................143.3一级发行情况统计............................................................................................................................183.4二级估值变动细节............................................................................................................................234风险提示.................................................................................................................................................27图1.本周收益率变动.....................................................................................................................................5图2.本周信用利差变动.................................................................................................................................5图3.信用债收益率变动.................................................................................................................................5图4.信用利差变动.........................................................................................................................................5图5.信用收益率和利差变动.........................................................................................................................6图6.保险对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................7图7.基金对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................7图8.银行理财规模存续规模.........................................................................................................................7图9.银行理财规模变动的季节性较强.........................................................................................................7图10.理财对银行间信用债的净买入情况...................................................................................................7图11.其他产品对银行间信用债的净买入情况...........................................................................................7图12.各类信用债成交剩余期限占比（按金额）.......................................................................................8图13.各类信用债成交隐含评级占比（按金额）.......................................................................................9图14.近两年GDP季度同比增速................................................................................................................9图表目录内容目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图15.核心社融增速继续下降，降幅放缓.................................................................................................10图16.保费收入增速继续回升.....................................................................................................................10图17.存款类金融机构存贷差创历史新高.................................................................................................10图18.中小行存贷差继续快速上行.............................................................................................................10图19. R001.....................................................................................................................................................11图20. DR007..................................................................................................................................................11图21. 2025/7/18 vs 2024/8/5信用利差变动................................................................................................11图22. 2025/7/18信用利差（bp）...............................................................................................................