全球航空运输展望：保护主义抬头

Table of contents1.Main takeaways2.Protectionism on the rise3.Trafficnormalizationandlimitedcapacity3.1Airpassengertraffic3.2Aircargotraffic4. Airlinefinancialperformance4.1Revenue developments4.2Profitability4.3Cost of capital4.4Aircraft and ownership4.5Labor4.6Jet fuel4.7Sustainable Aviation Fuel and CORSIA4.8Regions5. Appendix5.1Industry statistics5.2Glossary5.3List of charts5.4List of tables 488111417192021232426273131333434 1.Main takeawaysThis semi-annual report takes a broad look at developments in the airlineindustry, the context in which it is operating, and the challenges it is facing.•Global GDP has stayed just above 3% over the pastcouple of years and was expected to do so also overthe next few years. This outlook has been thwartedby US trade policy that brings protectionism to alevel not seen in decades.•The global economy will likely decelerate to around2.5% GDP growth in 2025, losing 0.5 percentagepoints versus the previous consensus. GDP in theUS will arguably be the most affected, shedding afull percentage point to approximately 1.5% in 2025.Most other major economies will see slower growththan previously anticipated.•In the midst of such elevated and unstable tariffs,it is fortunate that the share of trade in goods hasshrunk relative to that of services. This fact mitigatesthe impact of the tariffs across the global economy,as long as services remain exempt.•The lower oil price lends support to the globaleconomy. We expect the Brent crude oil price toaverage USD 69 per barrel, a 13% decline from2024, and an average jet fuel price of USD 86 perbarrel.•If the US dollar were to depreciate meaningfullyagainst its main trading partners, it would alsosupport global economic activity in non-USD-denominated countries.•Headline global inflation will benefit from the loweroil prices, but US goods prices are likely to increase.Core inflation, excluding food and fuel prices, hasbeen rather sticky and exceeds headline inflation inmany countries. This will limit central banks’ capacityto lower policy interest rates at a time when theslowing economy could sorely use such help.•Unemployment rates will rise in slowing economies,and notably in the US, once the federal governmentlayoffs enter the statistics. However, unemploymentwill rise from near-record lows, and if the increase islimited to potentially around one percentage point,household consumption would still be supported,although less so. •We expect passenger traffic growth to decelerate to5.8% YoY in 2025, from 10.6% YoY in 2024. On topof the macro-economic developments mentionedabove, supply chain issues will continue to preventairlines from realizing their full growth potential andcurtail progress on reducing CO2 emissions.•Global growth in air cargo in 2025 should slow moresubstantially, to only 0.7% YoY. Tariffs will reducetrade, and so will, importantly, the removal of thede minimis exemption, which allowed parcels worthless than USD 800 to enter the US free of customsprocedures. Relative competitiveness also matters,and the decline in ocean cargo rates makes airfreight less attractive in comparison.•In such a tumultuous year as 2025 has alreadyproven to be, profits in the airline industry willlikely hold up rather well. Lower fuel prices maydrive some extra demand. The silver lining of themalfunctioning supply chains is that load factorsincrease, underpinning profits.•Aircraft deliveries are now lagging 30% behindtheir peak levels. The aircraft backlog has risento a record-high 17,000 aircraft as a result. If thebacklog increase were assumed to be caused solelyby delivery delays, it would indicate that airlines areshort of 5,400 aircraft, 18% of the active fleet. Giventhe expected annual production of around 2,000aircraft, this may take 3-5 years to resolve.•In 2025, we expect airlines’ revenues to remainbroadly flat compared to 2024. We forecast a netprofit of USD 36.0 billion at a still meager 3.7% netprofit margin. Although this performance is amongthe best in the industry’s history, it is neverthelessthe case that airlines’ net margin is only half of whatall global industries achieve on average. 2.Protectionism on the riseGlobal GDP has been unusually stable and holding justabove 3% since 2023. Many economists expected GDPgrowth to remain around this long-term average alsoover the coming years. Now the downside risks havecome to the fore with the imposition of a universal tariffson merchandise trade by the US government, coupledwith higher tariff rates on selected countries andgoods, as well as the various countermeasures taken bytargeted US trade partners.How great that impact will be on the global economyand on the airline industry depends on multiple dynamicrelationships between different parts and aspects ofthe global economy. These relationships are dynamicbecause they can morph over time, making the outcomedifficult to predict. Important factors include the shareof trade in each economy, the proportion of total tradesubject to ta