资金流向报告：无痛...无痛

Apr'00'02 10 July 2025Investment StrategyGlobalMichael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.comChart1: BofA Bull & Bear IndicatorRises to6.1from6.0Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.ExtremeBearishBuy2 12850002BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHJul'25'05'08'11'14'17'20'23'26EU stocks vs government bonds (price relative) BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH46 2The Flow Show| 10 July 2025Weekly Flows: $30.7bn to cash, $20.8bn to bonds, $16.3bn to stocks, $1.8bn to crypto,$0.1bn to gold.Flows to Know:•Treasuries: largest inflow past 7 weeks ($4.3bn),•Bank loan: biggest inflow past 20 weeks ($1.5bn),•Tech: largest inflow since "Liberation Day" ($1.9bn–Chart 5),•Financials: largest inflow in 6 months ($1.9bn),•Emerging Market stocks: largest inflow since Jan'23 ($3.0bn–Chart 6).BofA Private Clients: $4.0tn AUM…64.0% stocks (highest since Mar’22), 18.3% bonds(lowest since Jun’22), 10.7% cash (lowest since Oct’21); Magnificent 7 stocks = 15%(common stocks + ETFs) of AUM, UST bonds (2 to 30-year) = 3%, international stocks =3% (common stocks + ETFs), gold = 0.4% of AUM; in ETFs past 4 weeks, private clientsbuying low-volatility stock, HY bond, and EM debt and selling Japan, equity growth, TIPS.BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 6.1 from 6.0, highest since US election on stronginflows to HY bonds, robust credit market technical, still elevated global stock indexbreadth, offset by bearish S&P500 hedge fund futures positioning.BofA Global Breadth Rule: when >88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices tradingabove 50-& 200-day moving averages…sell, when >88% trading below…buy; currently80% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50- and 200-day movingaverages…close but no cigar.BofA Global Flow Trading Rule: when inflows to global equity & HY bonds exceed1.0% of AUM in 4 weeks…sell, outflows >1.0% of AUM…buy; past 4 weeks inflows toglobal equity/HY bonds = 1.0%....“sell signal”triggered for 1sttime since Jul’24…medianMSCI ACWI return post 21“sell”signals since 1998 = -2.4% following 4 weeks.BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: July survey released Tuesday; FMS goodcontrarian inflection points past 12 months (e.g. bearish Aug’24, Apr’25 surveys, bullishDec’25, Feb’25 surveys–see Table 2); sentiment bullish July FMS metrics consistentwith profit-taking/summer pull-back…FMS cash level <4.0%, expectations of soft or nolanding >90%, net equity allocation >20% OW…worth noting nothing says“it’s a bubble”more than price action ignoring normally reliable trading rules…greed always harder toreverse than fear.Summer Client Feedback: no-one worried about economy, no-one talking valuation,no-one asking about China, but all asking about bonds & deficits and avoiding longbonds (“there be dragons”); macro community think govt bonds on cusp of disorderlysell-off and stock/credit clients asleep at wheel; but stock/credit clients say“longTACO”, Trump needs boom into midterms so follow the bitcoin breakout; Europe/Asiaclients enthusiastic about Big Beautiful Bill and less desperate to hedge US dollarexposure; majority expect Q2 earnings to surprise to upside, AI capex forecasts to rise,less sure AI EPS boost across corporate sector shows up Q2; equity barbell of US growthstocks & RoW value core position but active managers bemoaning concentration ofperformance; trading consensus is more S&P500 upside/catch-up into Aug Fed JacksonHole meeting, then healthy“back’n’fill”correction.No Policy Dragons: global policy still easy, albeit not as easy as in 2024 (Table 3);central banks still cutting rates (164 cuts in’24, 95 in’25, 81 in“26); US tax cuts of$243bn in FY2026 to partially offset end of US big government fiscal stimulus (added$622bn in '24 but only $140bn in '25-'26; China/EU/NATO fiscal stimulus on rise; and allknow negative impact of US tariff tax increase (from $76bn in’24, to $161bn in’25,$345bn in’26) can and will be quickly adjusted lower if macro needs help. The Flow Show | 10 July 2025Japan stocks vs government bonds (price relative)Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg (NKY Index, G0Y0 Index)Table2:BofA Global FMS contrarian inflection point signalsBofA Global Fund Manager Survey key metricsBofA Global Fund Manager SurveyAug'24Dec'24Feb'25Net % expecting strongereconomy-47%7%-2%Net % say recession likely-31%-64%-65%Soft + No Landing84%92%88%Average cash level4.3%3.9%3.5%Net % OW Equi