资金流向报告：杰克逊霍尔会议前瞻

Into the Jackson Hole Scores on the Doors: bitcoin 27.5% gold 27.2%, stocks 14.7%, IG bonds 8.6%, HYbonds 8.2%, govt bonds 7.0%, cash 2.6%, commods 0.6%, US$ -9.8%, oil -12.6% YTD. 14 August 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: “I’m just hoping the market goes up more than the currency goes down.” Tale of the Tape: sell US$: 88 central bank rate cuts YTD, fastest cut cycle since ‘20(Chart 3); stocks/credit anticipate Fed joining party; but new debates on Fed independence,higher Fed inflation target, sectoral price controls, gold revaluation, YCC (Chart 4) mean“disruption = debasement”, policy disruption to drive US$ bear (DXY below 90 – Chart 5),in turn driving higher allocations to gold, crypto, EM higher in second half of 2020s. The Price is Right: sell Alaska oil bounce: oil & natural gas (-41% since March) pricedfor Russia/Ukraine peace; but Trump geopolitics aims for lower energy prices for USconsumer…should US-Russia cooperate in "Race for Arctic" to monopolize cheaper/saferNorthern Sea Route shipping lane and exploit 15% of world's undiscovered oil, 30% ofworld's undiscovered natural gas (Chart 11), bear market in energy prices deepens. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: champagne for stocks: S&P 500 price/book ratio at record 5.3x(Chart 2) driven by Anything but Bonds allocation and AI boom; FX debasement (favorsnominal assets), demographics (millennial/Gen Z belief wealth via stocks not real estate),global rebalancing from US to RoW consumption all “it’s different this time” candidates;if not different this time, bonds get some love, international stocks>S&P500 continues. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com S&P500 price-to-book value ratio Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12866442 Timestamp: 14 August 2025 10:41PM EDT Weekly Flows: $33.0bn to cash, $26.4bn to stocks, $25.9bn to bonds, $4.5bn to crypto,$2.6bn to gold. Flows to Know: •IG bonds: $15.2bn inflow, $349bn inflows YTD…2ndbiggest inflow year ever (Chart9),•HY bonds: $2.5bn inflow, $40bn inflows YTD…4thbiggest inflow year ever,•Stocks: $26.4bn inflow, $576bn inflows YTD…3rdbiggest inflow year ever. BofA Private Clients:$4.0tn AUM…64.0% stocks (historic range 39-66% since Jun'05 –Chart 18), 18.3% bonds (17-34%), 10.7% cash (10-21%); under-the-hood…Magnificent 7stocks 16% of AUM, US Treasuries (2-30-year) 4%, international stocks = 4%, gold =0.4%; past 4 weeks GWIM buying MLP, bank loan, HY bond ETFs, selling staples, REIT,energy ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: stays at 6.1 as stock & bond inflows and strong globalstock index breadth (82% country equity indices trading >50 & 200dma) offset bybearish hedge fund positioning (long 2-yr UST futures). Into the Jackson Hole: stocks, credit, crypto, gold highs…investors pumped Fed set tojoin 2025 central bank rate cut party (valuation seen as sole impediment to furthercorporate bond & equity upside), priced for Fed cuts to short-circuit labor marketweakness, bail-out US Treasury (average maturity of US government debt 5-6 years, so5-year US Treasury yield needs to fall to <3.1% to stabilize $1.2tn interest payments ondebt (Chart 6); dovish Powell at Jackson Hole = buy rumor, sell fact profit-taking. Disruption = Debasement: US administration need for ‘25/’26 boom & bubble aseasiest path to reverse path of US debt & deficit trends, why US$ secular be