评估美国电网的可靠性和安全性

U.S. Department of EnergyAcknowledgmentsThis report and associated analysis were prepared for DOE purposes to evaluate both the currentstate of resource adequacy as well as future pressures resulting from the combination ofannounced retirements and large load growth.It was developed in collaboration with and with assistance from the Pacific Northwest NationalLaboratory (PNNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We thank the NorthAmerican Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) for providing data used in this study, the TelosCorporation for their assistance in interpreting this data, and the U.S Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) for their dissemination of historical datasets. In addition, thank you to NRELfor providing synthetic weather data created by Evolved Energy Research for the Regional EnergyDeployment System (ReEDS) model.DOE acknowledges that the resource adequacy analysis that was performed in support of thisstudy could benefit greatly from the in-depth engineering assessments which occur at the regionaland utility level. The DOE study team built the methodology and analysis upon the best data thatwas available. However, entities responsible for the maintenance and operation of the grid haveaccess to a range of data and insights that could further enhance the robustness of reliabilitydecisions, including resource adequacy, operational reliability, and resilience.Historically, the nation’s power system planners would have shared electric reliability informationwith DOE through mechanisms such as EIA-411, which has been discontinued. Thus, one of thekey takeaways from this study process is the underscored “call to action” for strengthenedregional engagement, collaboration, and robust data exchange which are critical to addressingthe urgency of reliability and security concerns that underpin our collective economic and nationalsecurity. i U.S. Department of EnergyTable of ContentsAcknowledgments........................................................................................................................iBackground to this Report..........................................................................................................viExecutive Summary ................................................................................................................... 11Modeling Methodology ......................................................................................................101.1 Modeling Resource Adequacy.........................................................................................131.2 Planning Years and Weather Years ................................................................................151.3 Load Modeling..…………… .............................................................................................151.4 Transfer Capabilities and Import Export Modeling ...........................................................181.5 Perfect Capacity Additions ……………………………………………………………………..192Regional Analysis..............................................................................................................202.1 MISO…………….…………………. ..................................................................................202.2 ISO-NE…………………………….....................................................................................232.3 NYISO……………………….. ...........................................................................................252.4 PJM…………..……………………………………………………………………………………272.5 SERC…………..………………………………………………………………………………….302.6SPP………..………………………………………………………………………………………Error!Bookmark not defined.2.7 CAISO+………………………….. .....................................................................................352.8 West Non-CAISO……………. .........................................................................................372.9 ERCOT………………………… ........................................................................................40Appendix A - Generation Calibration and Forecast .................................................................A-1Appendix B - Representing Canadian Transfer Limits .............................................................B-1References .............................................................................................................................C-1EO 14262................................................................................................................................C-3 ii U.S. Department of EnergyList of FiguresFigure 1. Mean Annual LOLH by Region (2030) – Plant Closures .................................. 6Figure 2. Mean Annual LOLH by Region (2030) – No Plant Closures ............................ 6Figure 3. Mean Annual NUSE by Region (2030) -Plant Closures ................................... 8Figure 4. Tuned Perfect Capacity (MW) By Region ........................................................ 9Figure 5. TPRs used in NERC ITCS ....................................................