纳米比亚：劳动力市场和资源依赖（英）

IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican DepartmentNamibia: Labor Markets and Resource DependencePrepared by Sanghamitra Warrier MukherjeeAuthorized for distribution by Xiangming LiJuly2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133.ABSTRACT:With high unemployment, especially among the youth, Namibia lags behind the SSA region onlabor market outcomes. Between 2012 and 2018, there was a structural shift in the economy from agriculture toservices, as younger workers took up low-productivity service sector jobs. A shift-share analysis highlights thatresources are not allocated to relatively more productive firms in the services sector, consistent with the weakreal GDP per capita growth. The ongoing oil and gas exploration (and potential production in the future) offersan opportunity for economic growth and job creation, but also presents risks of worsened labor marketRECOMMENDED CITATION:Mukherjee, S.W. (2025). Namibia: Labor Markets and Resource Dependence,IMF Selected Issues Paper, African Department, SIP/2025/092. Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund.J01, J08, J21, J24, J43, J62Labor Market, Unemployment, Job Creation, StructuralTransformation, Agriculture, Services, Productivity, Skills Mismatch,Skill Gaps, Oil and Gas Explorations, Local Content PoliciesSMukherjee3@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers: outcomes.Keywords: [Type Here]Author’s E-Mail Address: Namibia: Labor Marketsand Resource DependenceNamibiaPrepared by Sanghamitra Warrier Mukherjee A. Introduction1.Per-capita GDP growth in Namibia has slowed in the last decade.While Namibia has experiencedremarkable growth since gaining independence in 1990, real GDP per capita growth has weakened in recentyears, and now lags behind other resource-intensive countries and the broader SSA region (Figure 1), despitethe overall weaker performance of resource-intensive economies following the commodity price shock of 2015(IMF REO, 2024). Namibia ranks 2ndglobally in income inequality (based on the Gini index). Weak per-capitagrowth and inequality jeopardize economic development and Namibia’s prospect for convergence towardsother Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs)1.2.Namibia has also done relatively poorly in terms of labor market outcomes.With anunemployment rate of 36.9 percent (54.8 percent among youth) in 2023 (based on the 2023 labor force survey(LFS)), Namibia is an outlier relative to countries in SSA and EMDEs (Figure 2)2. A high dependence onresources is partially responsible for this outcome. The mineral sector contributes 13.6 percent to Namibia’sGDP in 2023. However, due to its high capital intensity, it employs only about 1.4 percent of the population1The very fast growth in non-SSA EMDEs has been largely driven by China. Excluding China from the chart, non-SSA EMDEs havegrown at roughly the same rate since 2000 as SSA non-resource-intensive countries.2Unemployment statistics are based on the “strict” definition of unemployment as per the 13thICLS standards or the mainunemployment definition in the 19thICLS standard to be consistent across countries and over time. This definition excludesworkers who have not taken specific steps in a specified recent period to seek paid employment or self-employment. Thisexcludes discouraged workers who may want to work but have stopped actively seeking employment due to barriers such asskill mismatches or repeated rejections, or who looked for work outside of the specific reference period. Figure 1. Real GDP Per Capita(Index: 2000=100) (based on 2018 labor force survey). Furthermore, mining sector rents are not well redistributed. Figure 2 alsoshows that resource rich countries lag behind non-resource-rich countries in SSA on employment outcomes,particularly so in fuel-rich countries.3.Job creation emerged was a top priority in the ruling party’s fall 2024 election campaign, and isa central pillar of its implementation plan.The SWAPO party promised to create a quarter million jobs(absorbing approximately 24 percent of the labor force) in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and oil andgas in the next five years by investing over N$85 bn (nearly 30 percent of 2024 GDP) in priority projects. Giventhat the government is already thelargest employer, the scope for furtherincreasing public sector employment islimited, highlighting an urgent need tocultivate a dynamic private sector anddiversify the economy (IFC, 2018).4.Namibia faces bothopportunities and challenges as itseeks to unlock its growth potentialand tackle unemployment. On theone hand,while lagging behind EMDE,Namibia performs better than peers inSSA on key measures such as accessto electricity, secondary education, andthe business environment (Figure 3).Oil exploration (and potential oil productio