地缘经济碎片化：对爱尔兰的影响（英）

IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean DepartmentGeoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for IrelandPrepared by Rossen Rozenov and Zhao ZhangAuthorized for distribution by Yan SunJuly 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 20, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/129.ABSTRACT:Ireland’s economy is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign directinvestment (FDI), notably from the US. This paper presents a framework to estimate the impact of geo-economic fragmentation through three channels: (1) supply chain disruptions, (2) trade distortions resultingfrom tariff increases, and (3) FDI relocation, including driven by tax policy changes. Our findings suggest thatwhile the impact of supply disruptions and higher tariffs would be relatively contained under moderate shockassumptions, potential FDI relocations would be associated with a sizeable loss of value added but morelimited impact on the indigenous economy.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Rossen Rozenov, Zhao Zhang, Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications forIreland. IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/089). Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund.F13, F15, F17, F62Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Supply Chain Disruptions, Tariffs,Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Enterprisesrrozenov@imf.org; zzhang7@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers:Author’s E-Mail Address: Keywords: Geoeconomic Fragmentation:Implications for IrelandIrelandPrepared by Rossen Rozenov and Zhao Zhang11The authors would like to thank Santiago Previde (EUR) for excellent research assistance, and the authorities andseminar participants during the Article IV consultation mission and at IMF’s European Department for their helpfulcomments and suggestions. IRELANDSELECTED ISSUESApproved ByEuropean DepartmentGEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND ________________ 1A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________1B. Ireland in the Global Economy _______________________________________________________2C. Foreign-Dependent Goods and Services _____________________________________________6D. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Multinational Enterprises________________9E. General Equilibrium Analysis _______________________________________________________ 12F. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________ 15FIGURES1. Openness to Trade and FDI __________________________________________________________32. Production Networks for Selected Sectors ___________________________________________43. Trade Structure_______________________________________________________________________44. Concentration of Trade_______________________________________________________________55. Imports of Foreign-Dependent Goods and Services by Country______________________86. Impact on Value Added by Sector____________________________________________________97. Share of Value Added by Owners’ Residency_______________________________________ 108. Sectoral Importance of Multinational Enterprises __________________________________ 119. Sectoral Impact of Higher Tariffs ___________________________________________________ 1410. FDI Shock _________________________________________________________________________ 14TABLE1. Main Foreign-Dependent Goods and Services _______________________________________7References____________________________________________________________________________ 16ANNEXI. NACE Rev. 2 Industries and Codes __________________________________________________ 18CONTENTS Prepared By Rossen Rozenov and Zhao Zhang INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND1GEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION: IMPLICATIONS FORIRELANDIreland’s economy is deeply connected to the global trade network and relies on foreign directinvestment (FDI), notably from the US. This paper presents a framework to estimate the impact of geo-economic fragmentation through three channels: (1) supply chain disruptions, (2) trade distortionsresulting from tariff increases, and (3) FDI relocation, including driven by tax policy changes. Ourfindings suggest that while the impact of supply disruptions and higher tariffs would be relativelycontained under moderate shock assumptions, potential FDI relocations would be associated with asizeable loss of value added but more limited impact on the indigenous economy.A.Introduction1.The global economy is undergoing deep changes.Growing geopolitical divisions arereshaping the international economic relations through trade and capital restrictions, contributing tothe formation of regional trading blocks. Supply chain disruptions in the aftermath of the COVID-19pandemic added to the concerns about excessive reliance on foreign suppliers and revived theinterest in industrial policy to strengthen domestic manufacturing and in “friend