金融衍生品研究

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2in the spot market, resulting in weaker futures performance over the pasttwo days.From a fundamental perspective, July maintenance capacity for causticsoda is significantly lower than in June, with maintenance activitiesmainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. Meanwhile, newcapacity additions in July–August could reach 1.1 million tons. Althoughthis would gradually increase supply pressure, producers haveovercommitted on exports, which is expected to absorb most of the addedcapacity.On the demand side, non-alumina-related consumption is in a seasonal lulland offers weak support. Alumina-related caustic soda inventories areneutral, while export demand remains strong, with low-price restockingshowing decent willingness.In summary, caustic soda is currently in an off-season with limitedupward price drivers. However, due to the weak chlorine market, there issolid cost support. With expectations for improved demand in the comingpeak season, a long position in the 10–1 calendar spread (October–January) is worth considering.Chart1：Market SnapshotSource：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES ResearchCSI 300 Index Futures3998.00.74%SSE 50 Index Futures2733.60.37%CSI 500 Index Futures6006.61.17%CSI 1000 Index Futures6444.41.41%30Y T-bond Futures120.7-0.02%10Y T-bond Futures108.80.02%5Y T-bond Futures106.00.02%2Y T-bond Futures102.40.01%Market Snapshot 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchNews Highlights:1. Automobile exports via the Shanghai Port surpassed 1.27 million unitsin the first half of this year, marking a 13 percent year-on-yearincrease and accounting for 36.7 percent of China's total auto exportsduring the period, data from the Shanghai Customs showed.The port saw auto export volume surge from 379,000 units in 2020 to 2.39million in 2024, representing an average annual growth rate of 58.4percent.020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2507.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000IC2507.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000IM2507.CFEIM2508.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2508.CFEIC2512.CFE 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分4Exports through the Haitong international automobile terminal, one ofChina's largest auto-export terminals, in Shanghai Port's Waigaoqiao portarea, hit 715,000 units in the first six months this year, rising 13.7percent year on year.Export routes now cover 131 countries and regions, with an average of twoto three "ro-ro" (roll-on/roll-off) vessels departing daily, carryingmade-in-China vehicles to global markets.Local customs highlighted efficient logistics and streamlined clearanceas key growth drivers, citing measures like appointment-based services tocut vessel wait times and "green channels" for priority handling of autoexport procedures. (Source: Xinhua)2. China's leading home appliance manufacturer Midea Group has become theofficial sponsor of the Africa Cup of Nations 2025, which is scheduled tobe held in Morocco.Midea Group and the Confederation of African Football (CAF) also signed asponsorship cooperation agreement on Wednesday at the headquarters ofMidea Group in Foshan, south China's Guangdong province. This movesignals that Midea is poised to make a significant investment in theAfrican market.The company said that the African market has strong consumptionpotential. In recent years, Midea has increased its investment in Africa.Its newly built washing machine factory and refrigerator factory in Egyptare expected to start production in August and November this year,respectively.Midea has established factories in Egypt and plans to expand itsinvestment there. Egypt, as a strategic hub between Africa and the MiddleEast, offers market potential and policy support, facilitating Midea'sdevelopment in the region, according to the group.Industry insiders believe that the current penetration rate of majorhousehold appliances in the African market is relatively low, indicatingsignificant potential. Recently, Chinese home appliance exports to the 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分West African market have been booming.Currently, companies such as Midea, Haier and Vanward have invested inbuilding factories in Egypt, while Hisense and Skyworth have establishedfactories in South Africa. It is anticipated that Chinese home appliancecompanies will make more investments inAfrica in the near future.(Source: Xinhua)3. Beijing's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.5 percent year on yearto over 2.5 trillion yuan (about 350.2 billion U.S. dollars) in the firsthalf of 2025, calculated at constant prices, the city's statisticsauthorities said Thursday.The primary industry achieved an added value of 4.57 billion yuan, anincrease of 1.5 percent; the secondary industry grew