金融衍生品研究

Morning Insight:October 10, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silver:Silver prices surged yesterday,with London silver breaking aboveUSD50 and reaching USD 51.221,a new historical high,while showing asignificantpremium over COMEX.The main driver was tight overseas spotsupply. Since silver was added to the criticalminerals list in August, ithasfaced the risk of a potential Section 232 tariff investigation,withimport duties possibly as high as 50%. The price spread between COMEX andLBMA widened sharply, and as arbitrage trading between London and New Yorkunfolded,inventories in London continued to flow toward the U.S. market,leaving London’s available deliverable stocks at extremely low levels.Currently,the 3-month silver lease rate exceeds 10%,standing at ahistorical high. These signals indicate that the squeeze in the silver spotmarketremains ongoing.However,given that overseas prices have alreadyinverted, two key developments warrantclose attention: first, the outcomeofthe U.S.tariff investigation;and second,the potential release ofhidden or off-market silver inventories—which are difficult to quantify—that could ease the tightness in spot supply. From a directional standpoint,webelieve silver’s trend remains upward,with the market continuing totest the USD 50 level. A confirmed breakout above this threshold could openfurther upside potential. ContainerFreight Index(Europe Route):Consider light long positions intheFeb–Apr spread.Based on overall loading and blank sailing data,thereduction in blank sailings during Week 41 has eased carriers’post-holiday cargocollection pressure.However,as demand has not shown significantimprovementin late October,the recent price rally lacks a solid volumefoundation.The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between1,050 and 1,150 points. According to current news reports, Israel and Hamas have reached the firstphase of a peace plan. There may be a month-long transition period from theendof the Gaza conflict to full resumption of voyages.We believe theprobability of a full recovery insailings by December or January is low.The reasoning lies in the relatively late Chinese New Year in 2026, whichcouldpushthe shipmentpeaklater than last year.Combined withexpectations of a ceasefirebetween Israel and Hamas, this may complicateyear-end long-term contract negotiations between carriers and BCOs,potentiallydelaying the signing timeline.Carriers may again announcefreight rate hikes in early January, similar to last year. Fromthe perspective of carriers managing voyage resumption,restartingfull operations inJanuary offers little advantage; a better choice mightbe a full resumption after the Spring Festival. Overall, the 2512 contractisexpected to remain in a wide-range consolidation.Divergence persistsoverwhether sailings will resume for the 2602 contract—watch foropportunitiesafter excessive declines—while the 2604 and longer-datedcontracts remain structurally bearish in the medium to long term. Nickel:Ongoing disruptions in Indonesian nickel mining have heightenedmarketconcerns,whilerefinednickelinventorybuildupandweakexpectations limit price flexibility. Recent developments in Indonesia haveraisedsupply worries.Due to violations of forestry permit regulations,148hectares of Weda Bay Nickel’s mining area(out of a total 47,000hectares,or about 0.3%)have been taken over,affecting less than 1.2million wet tons of nickel ore production. In addition, 190 mining companiesthatfailed to pay reclamation deposits have been ordered to suspendoperations, with an estimated impact of less than 3 million wet tons and amaximumsuspension period of 60 days.Assuming the affected ore averages 1.3% nickel content and 63% moisture, the production impact is about 2,867metaltons per month.Although the static impact appears manageable,thefrequent occurrence of such inspections has increased market concerns overIndonesia’s nickel ore supply. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government has urged companies to resubmit their2026 RKAB budgets starting in October 2025, further adding to market anxiety.Inreality,nickel ore premiums have stopped their seasonal decline andstabilized,slightly strengthening support on the mining side.However,this is offset by opposing dynamics at the smelting stage. Global refinednickelvisible inventories have risen sharply again,and according toforeignmedia reports,China has suspended an informal subsidy for nickelandcopper imports from Russia,leading to expectations of slower hiddenrestocking. Nickeloversupply is mainly concentrated in the refined nickel segment,reflecting an overall pattern of rising supply and weak demand. The expectedramp-up of refined nickel capacity in the second half of the year addspressure,while alloy producers have increased the substitution of nickelpig iron for nickel plates. As a result, inventory accumulation expectationswi