动荡与重构：2022年“一带一路”倡议下的全球城市报告

China Academy of Urban Planning & Design中国城市规划设计研究院 前言PREFACE2022 年，新冠肺炎疫情持续肆虐，俄乌冲突波及全球，能源危机愈演愈烈，全球化危机一波未平，一波又起。多重冲击下，全球交通联系动荡，产业链供应链破碎化，各国政府纷纷加大本土投资保障发展安全与韧性，全球城市陷入动荡之中，面临着不确定的挑战与机遇。在全球治理阵营对立风险日益增长、贸易壁垒不断推高的背景下，“一带一路”倡议倡导的包容性全球化理念是全球化“寒潮”中的一股暖流，为全球化注入新的动力。包容性全球化坚持更公平的发展理念，推动新兴经济体城市通过多样路径嵌入全球城市网络，催生多元共生的“全球城市雨林”。今年，我们持续优化完善全球活力城市、“一带一路”潜力城市指标体系及算法，与时俱进结合产业方向变革、科技竞争加剧趋势，对全球城市复苏的特征作出新观察。我们完善了数据来源和技术分析方法，以数字化方式直观呈现、深入探讨全球创新、生产与服务、联通设施网络特征与趋势。百年变局和世纪疫情相互交织影响下，今年全球城市复苏态势冷暖有别，美洲提升、欧洲下降、东亚持平，全球城市格局正在发生重大调整。随着全球产业链供应链多元化、近岸化重构，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进，全球城市秩序重构的趋势初露端倪。中国城市规划设计研究院 In 2022, COVID-19 continues to rage. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraineconflict has led to consequences worldwide, with intensifying energycrisis and globalization crisis coming in waves. The external shockshave resulted in disruptions of global transportation connectivity andfragmentation in supply chains. Governments around the world areincreasing their domestic investments to safeguard development securityand resilience. Faced with uncertain challenges and opportunities, globalcities are going through turmoil.Against the backdrop of growing risks from the confrontation of opposingcamps in global governance and the rising trade barriers, the concept ofinclusive globalization advocated by the Belt and Road Initiative is a warmcurrent amid the cold wave of globalization, injecting new momentum intoglobalization process. Inclusive globalization advocates more equitabledevelopment, with the aim to facilitate emerging countries to embedthemselves into the network of global cities through various paths andcreate a diverse and symbiotic rainforest of global cities.This year, we have continued to optimize and improve the index systemand algorithm of global dynamic cities and Belt and Road potentialcities, with new observation on the features of global cities recoveryand consideration of the trend of industrial evolution and intensifiedtechnological competition. We have improved the data sources andtechnical analysis methods to digitize and delve into the features andtrends of global innovation network, production and service network, andconnectivity facility network.Under the influence of profound changes unseen in a centuryintertwined with the once-in-a-century pandemic, the recoveryof global cities remains uneven, with growth in the Americas,recession in Europe and stagnation in East Asia, leading tosignificant adjustments to the landscape of global cities. With thediversification and nearshoring of global supply chains, a new waveof technological revolution and industrial evolution is picking upspeed, thus giving shape to the reshuffling of global cities order. page 04page 32page 34page 36page 05page 19page 24 附录 1：2022 年全球活力城市指数排名APPENDIX 1: 2022 RANKING OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES INDEX附录 2：2022 年“一带一路”潜力城市指数排名APPENDIX 2: 2022 RANKING OF INDEX FOR BELT AND ROAD POTENTIAL CITIES附录 3：城市列表APPENDIX 3: LIST OF CITIES中国城市规划设计研究院 全球城市的动荡与重构TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT OF GLOBAL CITIES全球化危机一波未平，一波又起CRISIS OF GLOBALIZATION COMING IN WAVES新冠肺炎病毒变异不断、持续肆虐。联合国数据显示超过 90% 的确诊病例来自城市地区，人口集中的城市是新冠肺炎疫情的震中。猴痘病毒汹汹来袭，世界卫生组织再度发布“全球最高级别公共卫生警报”，全球城市公共卫生安全面临不断的威胁与挑战。俄乌冲突对全球能源、粮食、矿产供应链的冲击不断显现，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测 2022 年全球经济增速显著放缓，美国和欧洲部分经济体的通胀已达 40 年来的最高水平。地缘政治紧张、极端天气频发、全球经济风险等纷繁复杂的挑战相互交织，进一步加剧了全球城市复苏的不确定性。COVID-19 mutations and variants continue to wreak havoc. Accordingto the UN, urban areas with high population density are epicenters ofthe COVID-19 pandemic, accounting for more than 90% of reportedcases. With the onslaught of monkeypox, the WHO issued the highestlevel of alert for Public Health Emergency of International Concern.Public health and safety in global cities are under constant threat andchallenge.The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global supply chains ofenergy, food and minerals continues to emerge. The IMF projectedslower global economic recovery in 2022. Inflation in the US and someEuropean economies has hit the highest level in 40 years. Geopoliticaltensions, frequent extreme weather events, global economic risks andother complex challenges are intertwined, further exacerbating theuncertainty in the recovery of global cities.全球城市动荡变革与秩序重构TRANSFORMATION AMID TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT OF ORDER全球交通联系动荡。新冠肺炎疫情下各国管制措施松紧有别，全球航空客运尚未完全恢复。地缘冲突不断升级导致国际陆路交通受阻、关键海上通道中断，全球货运动荡起伏进一步加剧。此外，“北溪”天然气管道受损、海底光缆故障等重大国际事件，也接连对全球城市物流、信息流网络带来扰动。全球产业链供应链重塑。频频爆发的“黑天鹅”事件加速了全球供应链重塑的步伐，主要国家地区出于安全考虑推动产业链供应链多元化、近岸Global transportation connectivity is disrupted. During the pandemic,different countries have introduced varying restrictions and the globalair passenger traffic has not yet fully recovered. Escalating geopoliticalconflicts have led to disruptions in international land transportationas well as important sea lanes. Besides, major international events,such as the Nord Stream gas pipeline damage and submarine cablefailures, have also disturbed the networks of global urban logistics andinformation flow.Global supply chains are being reshaped. The frequent outbreak of blackswan events has