"一带一路"倡议下的全球城市

前言PREFACE 2023 年，全球城市快速反弹的憧憬并未如期而至，全球地缘政治和经济社会环境更加动荡，疫后复苏步履蹒跚。全球联通设施网络逐步从疫情“断航”的冲击中恢复，网络格局已悄然发生结构性调整；在“科技脱钩”的风险中，各国纷纷走向创新的自主可控，科学创新、技术创新、产业创新三个环节在“全球城市聚落”中同频共振；在全球贸易切割的背景下，新产业、新模式的全球供应链更趋向区域化重构，全球生产网络正在发生深刻变革。 In 2023, the much-anticipated swift rebound of global cities has fallenshort of expectations, as the global geopolitical and socioeconomicenvironments grow increasingly volatile and post-pandemic recoveryof cities continues to stumble. The global facility connectivity networkis gradually recuperating from the pandemic-induced disruptions,undergoing structural adjustments. In the context of science andtechnology decoupling risks, countries are moving towards greater self-reliance and control over innovation. Scientific innovation, technologicalinnovation, and industrial innovation have gained increasing importancewithin global city clusters as they resonate with each other towardsgreater synergy. Against the backdrop of global trade segmentation,the global supply chain with new industries and models is becomingmore regionally concentrated, alongside profound changes to the globalproduction network. 如何在冲击中构建适应、恢复和发展的能力，实现更加韧性的成长，成为全球城市面临的首要任务。为未来不确定的挑战做好准备，并在新趋势中抓住发展的机会、取得长远价值，成为全球城市的一项共同议题。 It has become a top priority for cities to build their capacity to adapt andrecover from shocks and develop with more resilient growth. A commonagenda for cities around the world is to prepare for uncertain futurechallenges, and capitalize on emerging trends to achieve long-term valuein urban development. 十年来，“一带一路”倡议持续深入推进，通过不断深化近域联系、拓展广域合作，促进全方位多领域互联互通，为更加包容、普惠、韧性的全球发展提供国际公共产品和合作平台，培育发展新动力、创造发展新流量。中国城市规划设计研究院 The Belt and Road Initiative has further advanced over the past decade.By fostering closer ties in proximity, expanding extensive cooperation, andpromoting comprehensive and multidisciplinary connectivity, this initiativehas nurtured new development momentum and flows. It has also providedinternational public goods and cooperation platforms to enable moretolerant, inclusive and resilient global development. 我们持续优化完善了全球活力城市、“一带一路”潜力城市指标体系及算法，为城市可持续包容发展搭建全球坐标系。我们依托人流、物流、信息流、资金流、技术流等多元流量数据，从“城市”-“聚落”-“区域”不同层次，解析要素全球流动编织形成的城市网络图景。 We have continued to optimize the index system and algorithm of GlobalDynamic Cities and Belt and Road Potential Cities, generating a globalcoordinate system for sustainable and inclusive urban development.Building upon multiple flows of people, logistics, information, capital,and technology, we examine the global flows of factors at various levels,ranging from individual cities to clusters and regions, to decipher theglobal network of cities generated by such interwoven flows. page 04 page 05 page 20 page 24 附录 1：2023 年全球活力城市指数排名APPENDIX 1: 2023 RANKING OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES INDEX page 30 附录 2：2023 年“一带一路”潜力城市指数排名APPENDIX 2: 2023 RANKING OF INDEX FOR BELT AND ROAD POTENTIAL CITIES page 32 附录 3：城市列表APPENDIX 3: LIST OF CITIES 势，为区域产业体系发展与自主化重构带来新机遇；全球城市进入包容性成长新时期，发展中国家的增长更为强劲、发展路径更加多元，益发成为推动全球增长、增强发展韧性的重要力量。 layout of industrial and supply chains present new opportunities forregional industrial systems as they seek development through self-reliant restructuring. Lastly, global cities are entering a new era ofinclusive growth, with developing countries experiencing strongergrowth and more diversified development paths. They have becomecrucial forces in promoting global growth and development resilience. 全球城市的韧性成长 RESILIENT GROWTH OF GLOBAL CITIES 全球城市疫后复苏步履蹒跚 Faltering Pace of Post-Pandemic Recovery in Global Cities 全球活力城市 GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES 全球城市疫后复苏道路崎岖曲折。进入 2023 年，尽管全球经济从冲击中持续复苏，但进程不如预期，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测全球经济增速将从 2022 年 3.5% 下降至 2023 年和 2024 年的 3.0%。各经济体间经济增长呈现不均衡态势，许多国家增长乏力，或将拖累全球经济复苏前景。 The path to global cities recovery has been saddled with twists and turns.In 2023, despite the gradual rebound in global economy, the recoveryprocess is not progressing as expected. The International Monetary Fund(IMF) predicts a decline in global economic growth from 3.5% in 2022 to3.0% in 2023 and 2024. Unbalanced economic growth among differenteconomies and weak performance in several countries pose risks to theprospects of global economic recovery. 北美、欧洲、东亚三极引领，城市聚落支撑全球韧性发展 The triad of North America, Europe, and East Asia takes the helm, with city clusters bolsteringresilience in global development Emerging risks and challenges are adding to the complexity, with strongerintensity. Geopolitical turmoil, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, theIsraeli-Palestinian conflict, and the ongoing tensions between the US andChina, along with factors like the US dollar continued interest rate hikes,frequent occurrences of extreme weather events, and internal conflictswithin societies, all have major bearings on the recovery of global cities inthe wake of the pandemic. These factors has intensified polarization andsegregation among economies worldwide. 风险挑战此起彼伏、持续加剧。俄乌战争、巴以冲突、中美博弈等地缘政治动荡，美元持续加息导致全球经济风险加剧，极端天气频发，社会内部矛盾走向激化，都极大影响了全球城市的疫后复苏进程，并加剧了全球各经济体间的分化隔离。 今年，北美、欧洲、东亚三极持续引领全