中国下半年展望：经济活动放缓，消费保持韧性

Restricted - External Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong FIGURE 1. Key property leading indicators remain deep in contractionFIGURE 2. Secondary home prices continued to decline...010203040506070May-22May-23May-24May-25No. of cities (70 cities secondary home prices)m/m increasem/m no changem/m decreaseSource: Wind, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 4. Y/Y Land purchase volume slowedSep-23May-25GZSZCCL index: secondary home prices2025YTDtrend-50-40-30-20-1001020304050Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25% y/y YTDLG land sales revenueTop 100 developers' land purchase valueTop 100 developers' land purchase volumeSource: Wind, Barclays Research100 developers' land purchase volumes (on a sqm basis) posted a y/y recovery on low baseeffects,it has nonetheless been moderating since March, from ~5% y/y YTD to barely flat 0.4% inMay, reflecting developers' front loading and increasing caution, in our view (Figure 4). This isconsistent with our property analyst's observation that the average premium over base bids fellto 6.6% in the four weeks to 25 May 2025, from 15.4% in the four weeks to 6 April (see ChinaProperty: Sight on Site – Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou: A bumpy path to a stabilisation, 2May 2025). Moreover, nation-wide total local government (LG) land sales revenue remains indeep contraction, down 12% y/y YTD, versus -16% at end-2024, Figure 4).Consumption surprised on the upside despite deteriorating labour marketRetail sales have exceeded market expectations for four out of five months this year, by anaverage 0.9pp. This reflects a better-than-expected response to the government's trade-insubsidy program, which was expanded in size and scope this year, driving notableimprovements in sales of household appliances, communication devices, stationery, andfurniture (Figure 5). In fact, retail sales have increased steadily in the past three quarters toregister growth of 5.8% y/y on average over April-May, from 4.6% in Q1 and 3.8% in Q4 24, and2 2China's car sales rise in May, but price wars cloud outlook, reuters, 9 June 20253Tariffcuts ease mass Chinalayoffsthreat, but job market pain persists, Reuters, 16 May 2025FIGURE 5. Strong retail sales of trade-in goods...FIGURE 6. ...supporting e-commerce giants' revenues-8-40481216202022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q12024Q32025Q1% y/yAlibaba revenue growthJD.com revenue growthNBS retail sales growthQ3-24: Septemberpolicy pivot, withmore emphasison trade-inQ1: doubledconsumptiontrade-in subsidySource: Wind, Barclays Researchbelow 3% in Q2-Q3 24 (both 2.7%). A similar pattern was seen in listed e-commerce companysales data (Figure 6).Meanwhile, sales of autos, a major durable goods item, posted 10% y/y YTD growth on volumebasis, following solid 7.2% growth in H2 2024 and 3.2% growth in H1 2024. The sustained strongauto sales volume growth reflected government subsidies of up to CNY20k for trading in oldcars (around 10-20% discount, starting from July 2024), driving up auto trade-ins (Figure 7), aswell as a ferocious price war of up to 30% discounts for similar modelsofferedby leadingautomakers in May, such as BYD and Geely, in our view2. The length of recovery in auto salesvolume has been longer than generally expected, a trend that could sustain in H2. However, thedramatic price discounts mean auto sales by value have underperformed volumes by a widemargin. On a value basis, auto sales fell -0.1% y/y YTD as of May, versus an average of 3.6% in Q42024 and -3.9% in Q3 2024 (Figure 8). This has led to a decline in auto sales share and minimalcontribution to, or even a drag on, retail sales despite the strength in sales volumes. We notethe share of auto sales fell to 9.3% of total retail sales as of May, from 10.3% in 2023 and 2024,translating into a roughly 0.01pp drag on overall retail sales growth.Overall, following the strong 5.8% growth in April-May, we expect some moderation in retailsales growth to 4.5-5.0% in H2, given the fadingeffectsof front-loading, and smallerconsumption trade-in program subsidy for H2 (CNY138bn) compared with H1 (CNY162bn) andH2 24 (CNY150bn). Moreover, the continued decline in home prices and an uneven recovery inthe equity markets still pose some downward pressure on households' wealth (Figure 3), whileour tracking of private sector labour market indicators and anecdotal evidence acrossindustries and regions point to no signs of improvement, with more news reports of pay cutsandlayoffs3(Figure 9 and 10), holding back the recovery in consumption. That said, shouldthere be a sharp reversal in retail sales momentum, we would expect the government to step-upeffortsto support consumption with either an enlarged consumption trade-in program orexpanding the subsidy support to include more services sectors. 3 Source: Wind, Barclays Research27 June 2025 Source: Wind, Barclays Research