国际货币基金组织的韧性和可持续性信托：条件如何帮助各国建立韧性

POLICY PAPER 324•M A R C H 2024JOHN HICKLINAbstract The Center for Global Development works to reduce globalpoverty and improve lives through innovative economicresearch that drives better policy and practice by the world’stop decision makers. Use and dissemination of this Policy Paperis encouraged; however, reproduced copies may not be usedfor commercial purposes. Further usage is permitted under theterms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0International License.The views expressed in CGD Policy Papers are those of theauthors and should not be attributed to the board of directors,funders of the Center for Global Development, or the authors’respective organizations.CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT2055 L Street, NW Fifth FloorWashington, DC 200361 Abbey GardensGreat College StreetLondonSW1P 3SEwww.cgdev.orgCenter for Global Development. 2024.The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust: How Conditionality Can HelpCountries Build ResilienceJohn HicklinCenter for Global DevelopmentThe author is grateful for helpful conversations with David Andrews, Sanjeev Gupta, Kathryn McPhail, MarkPlant, and Etienne Romsom, and for comments from two anonymous reviewers; and is responsible for anyremaining errors.John Hicklin. 2024. “The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust: How Conditionality Can Help Countries BuildResilience.” CGD Policy Paper 324. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.https://www.cgdev.org/publication/imfs-rst-how-conditionality-can-help-countries-build-resilience List of Boxes1.The escalating risks and costs of climate change..........................................................................82.Accountability gaps in the framework of international cooperation....................................13ContentsA. Background and summary of argument.............................................................................1B. The exceptional policy challenges posed by climate change...................................7The urgency to address the exceptional risks of climate change........................8The exceptional size of the fnancing requirements................................................10The complexity of the domestic policy challenge.....................................................11The weakness of domestic accountability for climatechange policies.......................................................................................................................12The failures in the global system of accountability..................................................13C. A more ambitious approach to RSF conditionality......................................................14Best practice conditionality...............................................................................................15Main features of RSF conditionality so far..................................................................16Addressing the shortcomings of RSF conditionality................................................17Issue 1. Maximizing RSF efectiveness through greatertransparency and accountability.........................................................................17Proposal 1. Establish a new mechanism for transparencyand accountability.....................................................................................................18Issue 2. Increasing RSF efectiveness by focus on a few“IMF-focused” critical actions...............................................................................21Proposal 2. Focus more clearly on a few critical actions...........................22Issue 3. Increasing the urgency of RSF engagement with as manycountries as possible................................................................................................24Proposal 3. Introduce a low-access credit tranche to the RSF...............25The parallel need for a major initiative to strengthen Article IVsurveillance for all members...........................................................................................26References..........................................................................................................................................27 T H E I M F ’ S R E S I L I E N C E A N D S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y T R U S T: H O W C O N D I T I O N A L I T Y C A NH E L P C O U N T R I E S B U I L D R E S I L I E N C EA. Background and summary of argumentThe IMF formally established its new Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) in April 2022 withits declared purpose “to help countries build resilience to external shocks and ensure sustainablegrowth, contributing to their long-term balance of payments stability.”1The focus has so farbeen exclusively to address the challenge of climate change though pandemic preparedness wasidentified as another area to be covered, with the possibility of adding other topics at a later stage.In all, 143 countries were deemed eligible in principle. The immediate impetus for the IMF’s initiativecame in the midst of th