可持续性研究：使卫生系统适应气候变化——风险与机遇诊断

This fourth installment in our “Adapting to climate change” series focuses on health. We startwith a deep dive into the effects of climate change and climate change feedback on humansystems and ecosystems. We then explore how humanity can make those systems moreresilient and which global companies stand to benefit from this inescapable adaptation journey.Climate change can be lethal.The equivalent of France’s population (c.68m people) diesevery year around the globe. While non-communicable diseases remain the world’s biggestkiller (38%), we expect climate change to be a rising cause of death. According to the UN,almost half the global population already lives in regions highly vulnerable to climate change,and this is set to increase. From 2030, the WHO forecasts that climate change could causean additional 250k deaths per annum, i.e. roughly the population of Bordeaux.Climate change affects will continue to affect health in many ways.Extreme weatherevents have caused over two million deaths in the past 50 years, and scientists agree thatsuch events will intensify in frequency and in terms of damage caused. Some 130m peopleare affected by natural disasters each year. The EU expects very extreme heat waves to occurevery two years by 2020 in a +4.3°C scenario. According to the UNPD, by 2100, around2bn people, mainly in South and Southeast Asia, may face severe heat exposure, alongsideincreased risks from wildfires. Two billion people are already experiencing moderate to severefood insecurity, with just as many facing high water stress (source: UN). Climate change willalso further the spread of infectious diseases. Warmer temperatures are expanding the rangeof disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes, increasing the prevalence of malaria anddengue fever, among other illnesses. Human pressures such as deforestation, leading tohabitat loss, also heighten the risk of zoonotic diseases like COVID-19. The mental healtheffects of climate-related disasters, displacement, and uncertainty will also contribute torising cases of depression and ‘climate anxiety’, particularly among younger generations.‘Adaptation’: key to fighting climate change.Action and investment to mitigate climatechange have fallen short of global commitments and goals. The UN recently reiteratedconcerns that without rapid emissions cuts, the +1.5°C climate change goal would soon bedefunct, adding that we are now on course for warming of +3.1°C by 2100. Hence, whilewe do not question the need to keep investing in mitigation, we think that climate changeadaptation is increasingly inevitable.In a series of tear sheets, we identify seven strategies to enable humanity to adapthealth systems to climate change:crisis and disaster management systems and plans,heat-health action plans, improvements in animal health and parasite control, innovative,stronger and integrated vector-borne disease management, implementation of multi-hazardearly-warning systems, urban green and blue infrastructure planning, and using water to copewith heat waves in cities.In our “Climate-proofing health” basket, we list 54 global companiesthat stand tobenefit from the increasing need to adapt health systems to climate change.www.bernsteinresearch.com DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:Our Climate-proofing health basket - Asian and European companiesCompany name (country)Chongqing Zhifei biological (CN)Astral (IN)Hytera Communications (CN)Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Tech (CN)Guangzhou Hi-Target Navigation Tech (CN)Naruida Technology (CN)Innovita Biological Technology (CN)Ebara (JP)Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Tech (CN)Takeda* (JP)Beijing Global Safety Technology (CN)BioNTech (DE)Rockwool (DK)Wienerberger (AT)ABB* (CH)Hexagon* (SE)BioMerieux (FR)Diasorin (IT)Eurofins Scientific* (FR)GlaxoSmithKline* (UK)Merck KGaA* (DE)Novartis* (CH)Sanofi* (FR)Arcadis (NL)APACEurope* covered by BernsteinSource: Bernstein analysisSUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH WHAT IS THE PREMISE OF THIS REPORT?EXHIBIT 3:Relationship between health and climate changeSource: WHOHealth is an extremely broad concept. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines it as “a state of complete physical, mental,and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”. Climate change represents a profound global healthchallenge, not to say crisis, intricately linked to human well-being. Shifts in the planet’s climate—such as rising temperatures,extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem disruptions—are already straining health systems, increasing diseaseburdens, and worsening existing inequalities.As is often the case with climate-change-negative impacts, vulnerable populations, particularly in low- and middle-incomecountries, are disproportionately affected despite contributing minimally to global emissions. Marginalized groups—includingwomen, children, the elderly, and those living in poverty—are hit hardest by the health impacts of climate change. Thesecommunities often lack access to essential resources l