全球基金经理调查：粘稠的布丁

15 July 2025Investment StrategyGlobalMichael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.comNotes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts:BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStreamSurvey period 3rdto 10thJuly 2025211 panellists with $504bn AUMparticipated in the July survey. 175participants with $434bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 103 participants with$172bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions.How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged tosign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative.Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant monthin which they participate.OW: overweight; UW: underweightAA: asset allocation '17 12851033BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHJan'21Jul'25'19'21'23'25 2Global Fund Manager Survey| 15 July 2025Charts of the MonthChart2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment rises to 5-month highPercentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocationSource:BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.Chart3:FMS cash level drops to 3.9%, triggering "sell signal"BofA Global FMS average cash level (%)Source:BofA Global Fund Manager SurveyTable1: FMS metrics…greedy Dec/Feb surveys compared with fearful Aug/Apr surveysBofA Global Fund Manager Survey metrics in most bullish (red) & bearish (green) surveys past 12 monthsBofA Global Fund Manager SurveyAug'24Dec'24Stronger economy-47%7%Recession likely-31%-64%Soft + No Landing84%92%Cash level4.3%3.9%OW Equities11%49%OW US Equities11%36%Source:BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. *green = bearish survey, red = bullish survey9/11IraqwarGFCQE1US/EUdebt crisis012345678910'01'03'05'07'09'11Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations + cash AA + equity AA (scale 1-10)May'00Feb'01Oct'01Mar'03Dec'083%4%5%6%7%8%'99'01'03'05'07'09'11FMS average cash level (% of AUM) Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment,based on cash levels, equity allocation, globalgrowth expectations improved to 4.3 from 3.3,the highest level since Feb'25.BofA FMS average cash level declined to 3.9%in July from 4.2% in June, triggering a“sell”signal; median 4-week S&P 500 loss post 17“sell”signals since 2011 is -2% (biggest lossrecorded post-sell signal = -29%, best gain3%).2nd“sell”signal in past week from BofA GlobalInvestment Strategy trading rules; BofA GlobalFlow Trading Rule triggeredlast week (see TheFlow Show report); BofA Global Breadth Ruleremains close to a“sell”signal; July FMS datatakes BofA Bull & Bear Indicator to 6.2 from6.1 (sell signal requires >8.0).Investor sentiment most bullish since Feb'25……cash levels now below 4%, 86% expect softor no landing, and 59% say recession unlikely……but global growth expectations, allocation toglobal/US equities not at extreme bull levels. Feb'25Apr'25-2%-82%-65%42%88%40%3.5%4.8%35%-17%17%-36%BRICSCNYdevalTax cutsTradewar'13'15'17'19Jun'12Oct'16'13'15'17'19 Global Fund Manager Survey | 15 July 20253Expectations for the global economy recoveredfurther in July, with net 31% of FMSparticipants expecting weaker global economicgrowth, up from-46% last month and -82% inApril.Risk appetite as represented by US equitiescontinues to outstrip FMS global growthexpectations.FMS recession expectations fell forthe 3rdconsecutive month to net 59% saying a globalrecession was unlikely in the next 12 months,the lowest level since Feb'25, and downsharply from 42% saying recession likely inApril.When asked about the most likely outcome forthe global economy, 65% said“soft landing”(down just 1ppt from 66% in June).21% expect“no landing”, up from 16% to themost since Feb'25.Just 9% expect a“hard landing”, down from13% to the lowest levels since Feb'25. Net % say global recession is likelySource:BofA Global Fund Manager SurveyChart6:65% say "soft landing,"21% "hard landing," 9% "no landing"What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?Source:BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.Mar'09-120-80-4004080120'06'08'10'12434911576636468656459676627262120213021230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23 719233631261887142533716562545664687679766360171111 71151113118865Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24Apr'24May'24Jun'24Jul'24Aug'24Sep'24Oct'24Nov'24Dec'24No landingSoft landingHard landing On US Q2 earnings…42% of FMS investorsexpect EPS to surprise on the upside…30%expect results to meet expectations…19%expect earnings to surprise to the downside.On AI-driven productivity gains…42% of FMSbelieve AI is already increasing productivity,29% say they expect productivity gains after2026, and 21% say in 2026.Turning to the Fed…88% of FMS investors donot expect a rate cut at the July 30thFOMC,while 11% do expect a rate