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The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association is the leading international insurance think tank for strategically important insurance and riskThe Geneva Association identifies fundamental trends and strategic issues where insurance plays a substantial role or whichinfluence the insurance sector. Through the development of research programmes, regular publications and the organisationof international meetings, The Geneva Association serves as a catalyst for progress in the understanding of risk and insurancematters and acts as an information creator and disseminator.it is the leading voice of the largest insurance groups worldwidein the dialogue with international institutions.in parallel, it advances—in economic and cultural terms—the development andapplication of risk management and the understanding of uncertainty in the modern economy.The Geneva Association membership comprises a statutory maximum of 90 chief executive officers (Ceos) from the world’stop insurance and reinsurance companies.it organises international expert networks and manages discussion platforms forsenior insurance executives and specialists as well as policy-makers, regulators and multilateral organisations. The GenevaAssociation’s annual General Assembly is the most prestigious gathering of leading insurance Ceos worldwide.established in 1973, The Geneva Association, officially the “international Association for the Study ofinsuranceeconomics”,has offices in Geneva and Basel, Switzerland and is a non-profit organisation funded by its members.Mr MikeMcGavick, Ceo, XL Group plc, Hamilton.Mr MichaelDiekmann, Chairman of the Management Board, Allianz Se, Munich;Mr JohnStrangfeld, Chairman and Ceo, Prudential Financialinc.,newark;Mr ShuzoSumi, President, Tokio Marine &nichido Fireinsurance Company Ltd, Tokyo.Dr CarloAcutis,vice President,vittoria Assicurazioni S.p.A., Turin;Mr Henri deCastries, Chairman of the Management Board and Ceo, AXA Group, Paris;Mr Patrickde Larragoiti Lucas, President, SulAmérica S.A., Rio de Janeiro;Mr MarioGreco, Group Ceo, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A., Milan;Mr DonaldGuloien, President and Ceo, Manulife Financial Corporation, Toronto;Prof. DenisKessler, Chairman and Ceo, SCoR, Paris;Mr Michel M.Liès, Group Ceo, Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd, Zurich;Mr MartinSenn, Ceo, Zurich Financial Services, Zurich;MrestebanTejera Montalvo, Firstvice Chairman, MAPFRe, Madrid;Mr TidjaneThiam, Group Chiefexecutive, Prudential plc, London;Drnikolausvon Bomhard, Chairman of the Board of Management, Munich Reinsurance Company, Munich;Mr MarkWilson, Ceo, Aviva plc, London;Dr YanWu, Chairman and President, The People’sinsurance Company (Group) of China Ltd, Beijing. management issues.ChairmanVice ChairmenMembers of the BoardMsingaBeale, Ceo, Lloyd’s, London;Secretary GeneralMr John H.Fitzpatrick, Basel/Geneva. 1www.genevaassociation.org@TheGenevaAssocThe Public Pensions Crisisin the U.S.A GenevAASSoCiATion RePoRTby Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Actuarial Program Director, Illinois State University The Public Pensions Crisis in the U.S.Geneva | Route de Malagnou 53, CH-1208 Geneva | Tel:+41 22 707 66 00 | Fax: +41 22 736 75 36Basel | Sternengasse 17, CH-4051 Basel | Phone +41 61 201 35 20 | Fax +41 61 201 35 29secretariat@genevaassociation.orgwww.genevaassociation.orgCover ©Rmarmion|Dreamstime.com; p.4 Shutterstock©iakov Filimonov; p.7 Shutterstock©Jonathan Weiss;p.11 Shutterstock©Ai825; p.14 Shutterstock©Sarah2; p.16 Shutterstock©StockLite; p. 21 ©Buriy|Dreamstime.com;p.22 Shutterstock©LDprod; p.24 Shutterstock©Kirill Kurashov; p.29 Shutterstock© Shawn HempelThe Public Pensions Crisis in the U.S.© The Geneva AssociationPublished by The Geneva Association (Theinternational Association for the Study ofinsuranceeconomics), Geneva/Basel.The opinions expressed in The Geneva Association newsletters and publications are the responsibility of the authors. Wetherefore disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from such materials by any third parties.Download the electronic version from www.genevaassociation.org Photo credits:April 2014 www.genevaassociation.org5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY6OVERVIEW OF THE CRISIS7Some notable existing analyses of the issue8The impact of the subprime crisis9The governance issue of unpaid state pension contributions12A FOUR-PILLAR STRUCTURE TO SOUND PENSION PLANNING13The Four Pillars concept at work14The problem of excessive reliance on only one pillar16Working past retirement: implementing the fourth pillar of pension reform19The Four Pillars concept applied to the U.S. pension crisis19one wobbly pillar will not do the job of four pillars21The problem of pension obligation bonds24THEARTOFPENSIONFUNDING24Blame the actuaries?27Unpaid annual required contributions and the fate of public pension plans28no salvation in finance: time to do the real work30CONCLUSIONS32REFERENCESCONTENTS www.genevaassociation.orgEXECUTIVESUMMARY•A 2010 report by the Pew Center on the States highlights the trillion-dollarshortfall facing