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The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association is the leading international insurance think tank for strategically important insurance and riskmanagement issues. The Geneva Association identifies fundamental trends and strategic issues where insurance playsa substantial role or which influence the insurance sector. Through the development of research programmes, regularpublications and the organisation of international meetings, The Geneva Association serves as a catalyst for progress in theunderstanding of risk and insurance matters and acts as an information creator and disseminator. It is the leading voice ofthe largest insurance groups worldwide in the dialogue with international institutions. In parallel, it advances—in economicand cultural terms—the development and application of risk management and the understanding of uncertainty in theThe Geneva Association membership comprises a statutory maximum of 90 chief executive officers (CEOs) from the world’stop insurance and reinsurance companies. It organises international expert networks and manages discussion platforms forsenior insurance executives and specialists as well as policymakers, regulators and multilateral organisations.Established in 1973, The Geneva Association, officially the ‘International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics’,is based in Zurich, Switzerland and is a non-profit organisation funded by its members.Published by The Geneva Association—‘International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics’, Zurich.The opinions expressed in The Geneva Association newsletters and publications are the responsibility of the authors. We thereforedisclaim all liability and responsibility arising from such materials by any third parties.Download the electronic versionfromwww.genevaassociation.org.Cover page — Unidentified members of unions demonstrate outside parliament against government proposals during a demonstrationorganised by PCS and NUT trade unions in London on June 30, 2011. Copyright, Matt Gibson / Shutterstock.com. modern economy.October 2016The Pension Gap Epidemic© The Geneva AssociationPhoto Credits: The Pension Gap EpidemicChallenges and Recommendationsby Ronald Klein, Director, Global Ageing, The Geneva Association. AcknowledgementsThis paper has been drafted as part of The Geneva Association's Global Ageing Research programme. We are grateful to themembers of the programme's working group for their reviews and contributions to the paper. The working group's mem-bers are: Naomi Bazak, AVP, Industry and Regulatory Affairs, ManuLife; Theo Bouts, Head of Global Life, Allianz; RichardJackson, President, Global Aging Institute; Stefan Koepfl, Head of Life Planning and Development, Zurich Insurance Group;Mike Mansfield, Manager Retirement Research, Aegon; Cord-Roland Rinke, Managing Director, Life & Health – Asia andLongevity, Hannover Re; Fabian Sommerrock, Deputy Secretary General and Head of Insight, The Geneva Association; and,Phil Waldeck, SVP and Head of Investment & Pension Solutions, Prudential Financial Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTSFOREWORDEXECUTIVE SUMMARYTHE PENSION GAP EPIDEMICThe history of the pensionPension gap definedPillar I pensions may not be guaranteedPillar II public pensions may not be guaranteedPillar II private pensions may not be guaranteedPillar III savings may decreaseThe Geneva Association concept of Pillar IVMagnitude of the pension gapDemographicsOld age support ratioLife expectancy and fertility ratesADDITIONAL RISK FACTORS TO CONSIDERLow Interest RatesBiometric RisksCivilisation risksClimate changeHow big is big?SOLUTIONSGovernmentsIndustryGeneral populationConclusion 791212131417171819192323242828293132323434363737 ForewordAnna Maria D’HulsterSecretary General,The Geneva Association Mortality rates have been improving since accurate statistics have been recorded. But inthe middle of the 20th century, medical technology and the introduction of vaccinationsfor diseases such as tetanus, tuberculosis, influenza, measles, mumps and rubella havemassively improved health outcomes.This is a tremendous societal achievement but it also creates a significant challenge. Thisdynamic and ongoing improvement in life expectancies is not currently accounted for inthe social systems, such as public and private pension funds, designed to provide financialsecurity in retirement. At the same time, fertility rates have dropped to historically lowlevels in most countries and there are not enough workers to support the increasingnumber of retirees in pay-as-you-go pensions systems. For example, last year, there werefour workers for every person aged 65 or more in the European Union but by 2050, therewill be just two, according to Eurostat estimates1.Furthermore, in countries where established retirement funding solutions exist, trusteeshave relied almost completely on investment returns to sustain their funds. But theconsequences of the Global Financial Crisis in the form of long-term low interest ratesand fal