中国养老金改革：需要更大胆的措施来弥合资金缺口

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, whichforms part of it.An ageing population and low interest rates are posingchallenges to China’s pension systemIncremental reforms,such asraisingtheretirement age,willmove the needle, butwe thinkbolder stepsareneededChina’shuge pile of householdwealthcan help–RMB55trncouldflow intoinsuranceandpension productsby 2030The problems.An ageing populationanda low interest rateenvironmentare thetwomainchallenges facingChina’s pension system(many other countries havethe sameproblems).Other issues includeurban-rural disparities, regional funding imbalances,and limited pension options.Incremental reforms tobridgethe funding gap.In Q4 2024, China announcedanincreaseintheretirement age and rolled out private pensions nationwide.Thegovernmenthas also transferred shares fromstate-owned companiestothe NationalSocial Security Fund tobridge funding gapsinthestatepension system, whichcoversabout1.1bn people.Bolder steps needed to re-engineer the system.We think furtherreformsareneeded toaddress coverage gaps and transition towardssustainableand moretransparent pensionmodels. In the experience of other countries, a partial shift fromdefined benefit schemesto defined contribution schemesis often inevitable. Giventhe complexity of pension reforms, early planning is preferredtoavoidoverburdeningeither the state or private employers. We look at examplesinthe Netherlands andChile and suggest re-engineering Pillar 1(the state pension)and Pillar 2(employersponsored pensions)bybalancingguaranteed benefits with individual savingsplans.ChannellingChina’svasthousehold wealthinto pension savings.Based on ourestimates for 2024,ChinesehouseholdwealthtotalscRMB600trn,with c30% in cashand deposits and c44% in real estate. In the next few years, weexpecttoseeastrategic reallocation towards non-cashfinancial assets, particularly under-allocatedprivate pension and insurance products.By 2030, we estimate household wealthwillrise toRMB800trn, with RMB55trnflowinginto insurance and pension products.This is our latest report on the Demographics theme. If you want to subscribeto any of our nine big themes,click here.China’s pension reformBolder measures neededto bridge the funding gap Banking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comFind out moreJing LiuChief Economist, Greater Chinajing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063Taylor WangEconomist, Chinataylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650Erin XinEconomist, Greater Chinaerin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3404Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhouEconomicsChina ◆◆◆ 2Snapshot: China’s pension reform*Note: Denotes women in managerial positions, while women employed as basic staff will have their retirement age increased from 50 to 55Sources: CEIC,National Council for Social Security Fund, MOHRSS, UN Population Division Data Portal, Netease, NPC, OECD, CASS, HSBCestimates; Top chart: data as of 2023Current pension system……is facing a funding shortfall…...but reforms are underway……combined with wealth creation, could help build China’s pension buffersHousehold wealth in financial assets, RMBtrnMen60 to63 yrsWomen*55 to58 yrs2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024PropertyCash & depositsNon-cash financial assetsPillar 1: Public pension systemPillar 2: Occupational pension plansPillar 3: Private pension productsExpanded nationwide in December 2024 (voluntary)c70m participants(only c22% have made contributions)Up toRMB12,000of annual contributions per personEnterprise Annuities(voluntary)Occupational Annuities(mandatory)31mRMB3.2trnRMB2.6trn44mBasic Urban(mandatory)521mRMB6.4trnRMB1.5trn545mRMB3.0trnNational Social Security FundMore pensionersUneven pension coverageWorking longer315m pensioners onpublic benefits (2023)Certain demographics areat risk of being left out of thepension system10203040506019902050eIf insurance share of financial assetsincreases by 1 ppt per annum, this couldlead to cRMB55trn of inflows by 2030eOther non-financial assetsChina’s pensioncontributions couldrise with reformsChina’s old agedependency ratio isset to increaserapidly20%(2025)Pension coverage inthe gig economy22%(2017)Pension coverage ofmigrant workers20%(2025)Youths have nopension (aged <30 yrs) The need forpensionreforminChinaisbecoming moreurgentprimarily due totwofactors:1)theageingpopulationhas led to afalling ratio of workers topensioners, strainingthe pensionsystemwhichislargely dominated by the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) scheme;and 2) the lowinterest rate environment has affected pension liabilities more significantly than pension assets.In response,China hasraisedretirement agesand triedto expand pension coverage,particularly to gig workers,who now totalover 200m(ChinaNews, 23 November 2022).Thegovernm