“长期低”挑战：社会经济影响和人寿保险业的回应

The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association is the leading international insurance think tank for strategically important insurance and riskmanagement issues. The Geneva Association identifies fundamental trends and strategic issues where insurance playsa substantial role or which influence the insurance sector. Through the development of research programmes, regularpublications and the organisation of international meetings, The Geneva Association serves as a catalyst for progress inthe understanding of risk and insurance matters and acts as an information creator and disseminator. It is the leadingvoice of the largest insurance groups worldwide in the dialogue with international institutions. In parallel, it advances—in economic and cultural terms—the development and application of risk management and the understanding ofThe Geneva Association membership comprises a statutory maximum of 90 chief executive officers (CEOs) fromthe world’s top insurance and reinsurance companies. It organises international expert networks and managesdiscussion platforms for senior insurance executives and specialists as well as policymakers, regulators and multilateralEstablished in 1973, The Geneva Association, officially the ‘International Association for the Study of InsuranceEconomics’, is based in Zurich, Switzerland and is a non-profit organisation funded by its Members. www.genevaassociation.org@TheGenevaAssocuncertainty in the modern economy.organisations. The ‘Low for Long’ ChallengeSocio-economic implications and thelife insurance industry’s response Life Insurance in a Low Interest Rate EnvironmentPublished by The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance EconomicsThe Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance EconomicsTalstrasse 70, CH-8001 ZurichEmail: secretariat@genevaassociation.org | Tel: +41 44 200 49 00 | Fax: +41 44 200 49 99 2www.genevaassociation.org@TheGenevaAssocCopyright 2017 © – The Geneva AssociationCover page—Phongphan, Shutterstock. November 2017Photo credits: ContentsAcknowledgementsForewordExecutive summary1. The impact of ultra-low interest rates on key economic sectors1.1 HouseholdsBox: The arithmetic of longevity risk in a low interest rate environment1.2 Governments1.3 The non-financial sector1.4 The financial sector1.4.1 Banks1.4.2 Life insurers1.5 An assessment2. Life insurers adapting to low interest rates2.1 The big resetSidebar: Life insurance products and terminology2.2 Extracting customer value and business efficienciesSidebar: What is in-force management?2.2.1 In-force management2.2.2 Cost managementSidebar: How in-force management benefits policyholders2.3 Towards a new business mix2.3.1 Product and portfolio management2.3.2 Innovation and new business models2.3.3 Investment management2.4 Remaining challenges2.5 An assessmentSidebar: The role and impact of regulationSidebar: The challenges of InsurTech3. The socio-economic role of life insurers3.1 The challenges of longevity risk in a low interest rate environmentBox: Why longevity risk is challenging3.2 Indicators for the socio-economic contribution of life insurersBox: Retirement systems under stress and the potential for insurance solutions3.3 Funding the economy3.4 Assessment and outlook4. The future of life insurance4.1 Three points of agreement4.2 Three points of divergence5. Conclusions and policy implicationsAppendicesA1 The macro-financial environmentA1.1 Transitory factorsA1.2 Structural, long-term factorsA1.3 What next?A2 References 4www.genevaassociation.orgAcknowledgementsThis report was written under the general guidance of Daniel M. Hofmann, the Geneva Association’s Senior Advisor forFinancial Stability and Insurance Economics. Individual contributors include Matt Gosden, Christian Hott, Ronald Klein,Stephan Leppla, Christian Schmidt, and Peter Skjoedt. Comments on earlier drafts were made by Elia Berdin (Generali),Richard Jackson (Global Aging Institute), Bryan Pickel (Prudential Financial) and Stefan Kröpfl (Zurich Insurance Group).While the many helpful insights received from referees are gratefully acknowledged, the authors alone are responsible forthe report’s content.The core of the study is based on in-depth interviews with senior executives of large life insurance groups, complementedby a quantitative survey completed by all participants and a follow-up conference with representatives of participatingfirms to validate the survey. Interviews were conducted with senior executives from AIG, Allianz (USA), AXA, CNPAssurances, ERGO, ManuLife, NN, Prudential Financial, Sun Life, and Zurich Insurance Group. Participants in the follow-up conference also included representatives from Aegon, Allianz (Germany), Aviva, and Nippon Life. In total, the study isbased on the responses of 15 industry leaders.The study was further complemented by industry statistics and balance sheet data of a sample of the five largestlife insurers in six