流行病风险的可保险性研究

Kai-Uwe Schanz,Deputy Managing Director and Head of Research & Foresight,The Geneva AssociationIn collaboration withProf. Martin Eling, Chair for Insurance Management and Director,Institute of Insurance Economics, University of St. GallenProf. Hato Schmeiser, Chair for Risk Management and Insurance and Director,Institute of Insurance Economics, University of St. GallenProf. Alexander Braun, Vice Director, Institute of Insurance Economics,University of St. GallenAn Investigation into theInsurability of Pandemic Risk The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; ourmembers are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted incollaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identifyand investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlighting whatis at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform toour members, policymakers, academics, multilateral and non-governmental organisations to discuss these trendsand recommendations; reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlight the positivecontributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient and prosperous economies andsocieties, and thus a more sustainable world.An Investigation into the Insurability of Pandemic RiskPublished by The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Zurich.Cover page—World Pictures and Sdecoret / Shutterstock.comThe Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance EconomicsTalstrasse 70, CH-8001 ZurichEmail: secretariat@genevaassociation.org | Tel: +41 44 200 49 00 | Fax: +41 44 200 49 99 2www.genevaassociation.orgOctober 2020© The Geneva AssociationPhoto credits: ContentsForeword1.Executive summary2.Quantifying the challenge: Global protection gaps in light of COVID-192.1.The notion of protection gaps2.2.COVID-19: Assessing the shortfalls2.2.1.The business interruption protection gap2.2.2.The health protection gap2.2.3.The mortality protection gap3.Getting the basics right: The insurability of pandemic risk3.1. The concept of insurability3.2. The criteria of insurability3.3. The limits to insuring pandemic risk: A comparative and holistic view3.3.1.Pandemic business interruption risk3.3.2.Pandemic life and health risk3.3.3.Pandemic risk compared to other catastrophic risks4.ConclusionsReferences 3An Investigation into the Insurability of Pandemic Risk5688991015161617181821232628 4www.genevaassociation.orgAcknowledgementsThe Geneva Association is very grateful to its Board members Oliver Bäte, CEO, Allianz, andBrian Duperreault, CEO, AIG, for their personal guidance and support as co-sponsors of thisresearch.Our special thanks go to all Geneva Association member company experts whosecomments have benefited this publication: Edward Barron (AIG), Paul DiPaola (AIG), KeanDriscoll (AIG), Andreas Funke (Allianz), Gong Xinyu (PICC), Arne Holzhausen (Allianz), KeiKato (Tokio Marine), Christian Kraut (Munich Re), Roman Lechner (Swiss Re), ChristianeMeyer-Gruhl (Allianz Re), Cameron Murray (Lloyd’s of London), Guillaume Ominetti(SCOR), Gisela Plassmann (ERGO), Olivier Poissonneau (AXA), Veronica Scotti (Swiss Re)and Lutz Wilhelmy (Swiss Re).We are also indebted to our academic partners and contributing authors Martin Eling, HatoSchmeiser and Alexander Braun who co-shaped section 3 of this report. Foreword We offer our deepest empathy to the countless people, communities and businesseswho have been impacted by COVID-19. At the time of publication of this report, in lateOctober 2020, there have been more than 40 million cases and 1 million deaths recordedglobally. Many countries are experiencing a second or third wave of the virus.There is a great proliferation of information and views on COVID-19, and what we read,unfortunately, is not always rooted in facts. The insurance space is no exception.This first report in The Geneva Association’s research series on pandemics and insurancesets out to explore – in objective terms – the capacities of insurers to absorb pandemic-related costs.Encouragingly, pandemics on the scaleof COVID-19 pose no fundamentalinsurability challenges for health andlife insurers, allowing them to fully playtheir protection and support role toaffected people and communities.The picture is different for property& casualty (P&C) losses. Even thosewho anticipated the scenario of aglobal pandemic did not fathom the nature and scale of government decisions takenaround the world to slow infections: wide-ranging shutdown measures that broughteconomies to a standstill.From an insurance perspective, this type of government response is neither predictablenor modellable. That is one of the reasons why pandemic risk was not