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IndustryUS Autose Forecast ChangeEdison YuResearch Analyst+1-212-250-7263Winnie DongResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5121James Mulholland, CFAResearchAssociate+1-212-250-6026Laura LiResearch Associate+1-212-250-2266Key ChangesCompanyTarget PriceADNT.N18.00 to 23.00ALV.N108.00 to122.00APTV.N67.00 to 81.00LEA.N87.00 to 88.00VC.OQ87.00 to 120.00Source: Deutsche Bank 11 July 2025Autos & Auto TechnologyUS AutosTop supplier picksWe highlight Visteon and Aptiv as Top Picks, and continue to like Autolivfor best-in-class execution, as well as Dana for its OH divestiture story. On Visteon,management has been active traveling across eight different cities in recentmonths, and we feel that the mid-term growth story is resonating well withinvestors, especially around its traction with Toyota and other Asian (ex-China)OEMswithwhomitcurrentlyhaslittlemarketshare.Althoughcustomermixheadwinds and BMS have been notable headwinds in the past, these could havealready bottomed out. On Aptiv, the company will be hosting an Analyst Dayprospects of each entity postspin,amid the new environment the industryis facing.We remain constructive on the name heading into the fall and believe under themost recent trade policies, Aptiv should be well positioned to meet full yearexpectations. Importantly, we think the spin-off of EDS continues to progress andremains on track for completion by 1Q26. On Dana, our sense is the stock deservesa higher ceiling now vs. its current level post the official announcement of the OHspin-off. Using the $2.7bn in proceeds, managements plans to return $1.0bn toshareholders while also paying down ~s2.0bn in debt to reach 1.0x net leverage.However, the commercial vehicle end-market remains weak near-term and there issome skepticism around the 10-10.5% EBITDA margin target under new Dana for2026 and beyond. Lastly on Autoliv, the company has demonstrated consistenttrack record in execution, even amidst uncertain operating environment. Wecontinue to like the name but naturally understand that the stock does not have themost cyclical torque in the group.Page 2 97eC 11 July 2025Autos & Auto TechnologyUS AutosAmerican Axle (AXL, Hold, $6 PT)2Q25 earningsWe expect American Axle to report relatively in-line 2Q results. S&P Globalforecasts T1XX production flat YoY with Ram HD down -15% YoY (compared to1Q's down ~40%). Relative to our prior estimates, we see improvement in thoseschedules: T1XX (-3.9% prior) and Ram HD (-27.5% prior). As such, we forecastrevenue of $1.57bn and EBITDA of $189m, a 12.1% margin. This compares to ourprior forecast of $1.48bn and EBITDA of $180m, a 12.2% margin and consensusrevenue/EBITDA of $1.54bn/ $189m, an 12.3% margin.2025 outlookLooking at the remainder of the year, we see some movement upwards in recentproduction schedules. Guidance currently assumes North American production of14.0-15.1m forfull year2025, bracketing our current estimates of ~14.5m units. Wenote that North America represents >70% of the company's mix. 2H is stillexpected, however to be softer than 1H. Due to the production scheduleadjustments, we incrementally raise our full year revenue forecast to s5.96bn withEBITDA of s719m, a 12.1% margin which places sales slightly below the high endof prior guidance and EBITDA at midpoint. We still give the company full credit for$100m of performance actions throughout the year, leaving it relatively back halfweighted. This compares to consensus at $5.79bn and $695m, a 12.0% margin.Maintain Hold and $6 price targetWith the Dowlais transaction slated to close by the end of the year, our valuation isreflective of pro-forma EBITDA estimates, inclusive of $30Om in synergies. Basedon management's comments, we retain our comfort that the $300m in synergiesare achievable and could be a source of upside. Over the last few months, we havegenerally gotten comfortable with the acquisition which includes a closerlookat itsChina JV. Overall, we maintain our Hold rating and $6 price target, still based on3.25x pro-forma 2026E EBITDA.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 11 July 2025Autos & Auto TechnologyUS AutosAdient (ADNT, Hold, $23 PT)F3Q25 earningsWe expect solid F3Q results supported by healthy production volume and weakerUsD vs. Euro. On tariffs,management previously called out 75% of the recoveryshould be settled by the time company reports earnings. In relation, there wasabout$12mpermonthofgrossexposurewith~$8mrelatedtoChinabutafterthedeal, the rate dropped from 145% to 30% after the trade deal. For 3Q itself, weforecast $3.59bn in revenue and $215m in EBITDA (6.0% margin), which comparesto consensus of s3.55bn/$205m (5.8% margin).FY25outlookguidance at ~$13.9bn revenue and ~$850m in EBITDA, and our sense is it wouldhave raised the numbers if not for tariffs. Now with magnitude of tariff impact beinglower and volume seemingly coming in at leastin-line with expectations, we expectAdientto tweak up its guide considering there's just one quarterleftto go in its fiscalyear. As such, we forecast F