2Q25预览：尚未准备好买入

eCSA Omotayo OkusanyaResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9284Conor PeaksResearch Associate+1-212-250-7798Key ChangesCompanyTarget PriceMAC.N22.00 to 18.00SKT.N37.00to 34.00195.00 toSPG.NSource: Deutsche Bank 10 July 2025REITsMall REITs[ DayCountryChinaEUVietnamTaiwanJapanSouth KoreaIndiaThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaSwitzerlandUKKazakhstanTunisiaSouth AfricaBosnia andHerzegovinaSerbiaBangladeshcambodiaMyanmarLaosSource : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche BankPage 2 10July2025REITsMall REITsWe believe it is too early to get bullish on the group as we are still far from havinga definitive trade policy under the current Trump administration. The deadline dateto complete trade negotiations with key trading partners has once again beenmoved to August 1st (which is a plus), buton the negative side, reciprocaltariff ratescurrently suggested by President Trump would be extremely punitive to trade ifimplemented. As such, we maintain an equal-weight on Mall REITs as we havedifficulty envisioning multiple expansion beyond the group's current valuation.Heading in 2Q25 earnings, we also worry about potential deterioration in keyoperating metrics such as tenant sales, and watch for continued tenant credit fall-out given the recent bankruptcy filing by Torrid, and our concern that retailerprofitability is likely to take a turn for the worse against the current tariff backdrop.As such, we could see a deteriorating earnings outlook for the Mall REITs in 2H25into 2026, highlighted by increased vacancy, lower tenant reimbursement incomeand lower overage rents.Figure 2: Mall REIT Valuations Likely To Limit Upside Opportunity Amid TariffBackdropPerformance since April 2nd(LiberationDay)SPGMACSKTP/FFOSPGMACSKTMall CoverageSource : Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank2Q25 Preview - Expecting A Cautious ToneSimilar to 1Q25 earnings commentary, we believe management teams are likely tostrike a tone of caution given the continued uncertainty around trade policy. Welook for signs of any change in consumer behavior or deteriorating retailerpercentage rents, or any potential pickup in bad debt. We also look forany softnessin foot traffic as indicated by recent updates from PlacerAi mall traffic reports. Wealso will be looking for any updated views on if retailers are going to eat higheroperating costs from tariffs which will reduce margins and could slow store countgrowth, or do they intend to pass through costs to the consumer which may slowretail sales (this is typically an early indicator of slower rent growth).Lastly, we look for management commentary around tenant health, their ability topass prices through to customers, and any credit watchlist additions followingrecent bankruptcies from Mall based retailers such as Torrid and CMX Cinemas,and earlier bankruptcies this year from the likes of Forever 21.Given the consumer backdrop, as well as the headwinds from tariff policy, we seerising risk of retailer bankruptcies and store closures (we are watching Kohl's andDeutsche Bank Securities Inc. 9-July3-Apr8-Apr(Current)-10.1%-17.6%-4.4%-11.9%-25.2%-7.8%-8.6%-13.2%-8.8%9-July2-Year Avg5-Year Avg(Current)12.9x12.2x11.0x10.9x9.5x7.7x13.8x13.8x11.4x12.8x12.1x10.8x 10 July 2025REITsMall REITsClaire's very carefully). We also worry that some bankruptcy reorganizations mayfail to attract bidders, leading to liquidation scenarios and larger than expectedstore closings.Figure 3:Mall REIT Exposure To DB Retailer Watch List (Torrid & CMX RecentlyDeclared Bankruptcy)SPGMACSKTAcquisition Opportunities Have Picked Up - And Mall REITs Are CapitalizingAcquisition opportunities have improved throughout 2025 as managementcommentary (especially at Icsc here) has indicated a pickup in properties comingto market. Most notably, SPG and MAC have completed larger, headline worthy,transactions during 2Q25. Specifically, Simon Properties (previously 25% owner)purchased Swire Properties' 75% interest in Brickell City Center to become soleowner. The deal was purchased for $512.6M, with an additional $36.1M dependenton post-close operations.Meanwhile, MAC closed on Crabtree Mallin Raleigh, NCfor s290M at an impressive 11% initial yield. This also follows a 350M acquisitionfromSPGin1Q25andSKT's$167MpurchaseofPinecrestthis pastFebruary.Inourview, this paints a busy acquisition backdrop in 2025 as the Mall REITs appearwilling to purchase high quality malls/outlets given the lack of new supply. The highsingle digit(sometimes double digit)cap ratesonthesetransactionsalso makethemattractive.SPG'sandSKT'shealthybalancesheets(5.8xand5.2xnetdebttoEBITDA, respectively) and solid liquidity profiles ($10.1B and $497M respectively)provide runway for both companies to capitalize on acquisitions in the event oftariff/economic slowdown-driven distress in the mall and/or outlet space. WhileMAChassomewhatlimitedacquisitionflexibilitygiven7.95xnetdebttoEBiTDA,the Crabtree Mall deal clearly indicates that the company can be opportunistic inthis regard.Thecompany'sPathForwardplanhoweveris morefo