智能电表：降至前10%的折扣

IndustryEuropean UtilitiesWeekly 9 James Brand, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-74705Olly JefferyResearch Analyst+44-20-754-70055 11July2025ElectricityEuropean Utilities WeeklyWhat's in our weekly?A summary of our top picks and rationales.A summary of our new financial projections and how our EPS estimatescompare to Bloomberg consensus.Traditional multiples such as P/Es, EV/EBITDA multiples and dividendyields going out to 2030.Regulatory earnings based P/Es for regulated utilities going out to 2030.Our regulatory earnings estimates are intended to reflect the economicearnings power under utilities regulatory frameworks.A 2030 P/E analysis, assuming that investors earn cost of equity betweenOur Sustainable Equity Cashflow assessment, which corresponds tocashflow generation and asset value growthYear ahead P/E relative for the sector.Regulated utility metrics such as Return on Regulatory Equity, RAB growthand RAB premia.A 2030 RAB premium analysis, assuming that investors earn cost of equitybetweennowandthenData/charts on commodity prices and power prices.Data/chartsonstock/sectorperformanceandearningsrevisions.Page 2 cs 9 11July2025ElectricityEuropean Utilities WeeklyTable Of ContentsTop picks & earningsMultiples and P/E analysis.Sustainable Equity Cashflow..Sector versus the market..Regulated network utilities.Commodity and power prices ..Stock performance and earnings revisions ....Valuation & risk.Deutsche Bank AG 9..10.11.1221 Top picks & earningsWe provide a summary of our active recommendations with high level rationale in Figure 1Figure 1: European utilities top picksPriceMCap (ECompanyTPRec.(local)BuysIntegratedE.ON15.917.0Buy41.5EDP3.83.9Buy15.9Engie19.821.5Buy48.2RWE35.939.0Buy26.3SSE18862000Buy21.7Veolia30.632.0Buy22.3NetworksNational Grid10341150Buy54.6Snam5.06.4Buy16.8Terna8.59.6Buy16.9United Utilities10991200BuyPennon494.0540.0BuyRenewableEDPR10.311.0Buy10.9SellsIntegratedFortum15.512.8Sell13.9Verbund64.060.0Sell22.2NetworksRedeia17.716.0SellSectorweightedaverageSource : Deutsche Bank estimates; Bloomberg Finance LP; Note: for UK stocks we show March year end fiscal years aligned to the prior calendar year for comparabilty EV2026multiplesEV/EBITDAbn)(E bn)(x)96.310.440.58.499.87.635.56.335.29.353.07.392.810.930.710.228.710.78.017.010.02.46.711.424.512.022.213.710.228.011.69.615.711.555712759.3 Weprovideamoredetailedsummaryofournewfinancial projectionsinFigure2Figure 2: European utilities summary financial projectionsVerbund2,2762,6193.83.53.22.83.41.91.7Elia1,9532,4652,9793,5214,0584,583"88.72.12.2ORSTED26,04333,71615.0Fortum1,3571,359Engie13,56913,274Veolia7,1137,537E.ON9,7029,682RWE4,904Enel23,12024,05624,27824,484Snam2,9593,071Terna2,7632,91EDPR1,9022,089EDP4,835Acciona Energia1,5621,1211,152Enagas516Iberdrola16,90517,497Redeia1,2571,4071,8340.800.82Naltional Grid8,0899,17447.7Pennon57029.4SSE3,3164,0715,99668.773.5Severn Trent1,5501,7262,070United Utilties1,6681,7991,9692,0722,070101.8105.6106.052.8Source : Deutsche Bank estimates; Note: for UK stocks we show March year end fiscal years aligned to the prior calendar year for comparability We highlight how our EPS estimates compare to Bloomberg Finance LP consensus in Figure 3Figure 3: DB earnings estimates versus Bloomberg consensusDBCompany2025E2026E2027E2025EVerbund3.833.483.224.27BelgiumElia5.156.146.865.04DenmarkORSTED11.3722.9118.0219.67Fortum0.910.890.880.95FranceEngie1.991.871.951.95Veolia2.262.472.702.22GermanyE.ON1.151.111.321.14RWE2.212.803.342.13Enel0.670.700.700.68Snam0.420.430.440.41Terna S.p.A.0.520.540.580.53PortugalEDPR0.320.460.480.33EDP0.300.310.310.29Acciona Energia2.150.710.771.66Enagas1.020.910.941.03Iberdrola0.980.950.980.95Red Electrica0.901.091.120.94National Grid PLC78.788.18'678.2Pennon Group34.839.946.332.5SSE150.0184.4197.4155.7Severn Trent184.7212.1241.4175.3United Utilities101.8114.2105.697.1MediandifferenceStoxx 600 weighted difference*SourDeutsche Bankestimates Bloomberg Finane LNot forUKstocks weshowMarchyearendfiscalyarsalignedtthepriorcalendaryearforomparabiliy Multiples and P/E analysisWe show traditional multiples such as P/Es, EV/EBITDA multiples and dividend yields going out to 2030 in Figure 4. In Figure 5 overleaf we show'regulatory earnings'based P/Es going out to 2030. For all pure play regulated utilities, we have estimates for IFRS earnings and regulatory earnings, with regulatory earnings intendedto reflect the economic earnings power of the companies (effectively a RoRE' translated into an earnings number).Figure 4: European utilities valuation multiples(Ebn)Verbund64.060.0Sell22.228.010.611.612.113.111.611.6Fortum15.512.8Sell13.913.710.110.2'08.5Engie8°6121.5Buy48.2Veolia30.632.0Kng22.353.07.3E.ON15.917.041.9.10.4RWE35.939.0BuyEnel8.17.7EDP3.833.9Iberdrola15.714.5HoldSSE18862000BuySubtotal weighted average392.6EliaL-2695.0HoldSnam5.06.4Terna8.59'6RegulatedEnagas13.412.8HoldRedieia17.716.0National Grid1150Pennon494540Severn Trent26612800HoldUnited Utities10991200Buy8.017.010.210.010.5