中国自动化市场月度跟踪报告：6月增速加快，但基础需求改善有限

IndustryChina AutomationMarkete Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst+852-2203 5884Top PicksShuanghuan Driveline(002472.SZ),CNY31.02Haitian International(1882.HK),HKD20.30AirTAC (1590.TW),TWD860.00Hengli Hydraulic(601100.SS),CNY70.20Source: Deutsche Bank 11July2025ManufacturingChina Automation Marketcompanies in June. By end-market, automotive, battery and logistics showedgood growth in the month - similar to the trend YTD. Our understanding is that theg0-day US-China tariff de-escalation announced on 12 May (additional US tariff onChinese imports lowered from 145% to 30% during the period) provided somecustomersre-acceleratedmanufacturinginMayandJuneaftertheorderpausesinApril. Our channel checks indicate that goods manufacturers in China coulddigest up to 20-30% additional tariff cost before considering moving the factoriesoverseas.Outlook: Deceleration in 2Q25 and 2H25; More downside risks than upside risksLookingahead,distributorsand expertswetalkedtoallvoicedverylowvisibilityfor 2H25 (link to expert call takeaways). In terms of the overall China automationmarketgrowth,wecontinuetobelievethatgrowthhaspeakedoutin1Q25.2Q25in 2H25, with more downside risks than upside risks.We flag downside pressure from 1) fading government subsidy - certain citieshavediscontinuedsubsidysinceJune2025,andasthetrade-insubsidywasfirstintroduced in April 2024 and boosted in mid 2024, the yoy growth will face higherbase since mid 2025; 2) lingering headwinds from geopolitics and tariffs - someof tariffs; and 3) low domestic consumption confidence.The recent call from the Chinese governmentforanti-involutionforthe solarsector(link to report) and the potential for a new round of supply-side reform similar tothat in 2015-16 (link to report) could provide some tailwinds, in our view. However,solardemandnowaccountsfor<5%ofrevenueformostoftheautomationnameswe cover, and there is little signs of a recovery of sa@ar capex just yet, in our view.For the potential supply-side reform, we await ihore details potentially from thePolitburo meeting in late July.Stock views: Prefer Shuanghuan,SHaitian International, Airtac and HengliroomforYaskawanownafroyAs we hold a cautious view of the China automation market growth in 2H25, weprefer non-automation names (Shuanghuan Driveline and Hengli Hydraulic), andautomation names exposed to the overseas market (Haitian International) and haveclear share gain momentum (Airtac). Our top picks remain Shuanghuan Driveline(Buy), Haitian International (Buy), Airtac (Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (Buy)-unchangedvsourtoppicksinJune.Into the 2Q25 reporting season, Yaskawa (Hold) was the first to report on 4 July(link to report) - the results were disappointing as we expected; that said, withlowered FY guidance, we believe the downside room of Yaskawa has now beennarrowed. We remain positive on the plastic injection molding machinemanufacturers Haitian International (Buy) and Yizumi (Hold) for 2Q25 resultsconsidering the healthy order momentum lifted by overseas orders (overseasaccountsfor37%and33%ofgroupsalesrespectively)FortheJapaneseautomationnames we cover,theyaremostlytrading onmultiplesbelow historical average, suggesting compelling valuation. We need to see de-risked guidance and improved order momentum to turn positive.Page 2 eernational and Yizumi into 2Q results; Downside 11July2025ManufacturingChina Automation MarketWe downgraded Inovance to Hold from Buy on 5 May (link to report) as we expecta slowdown in Automation business growth in 2Q25 and 2H25, and we see the NEVcomponentbusinesshasbeendrivingthegrowthmorethantheAutomationbusinessforthecompanysince2023,whichcould resultinade-rating (automotivecomponent peers trade at lower multiples than automation peers).Figure 1: Automation order/sales growth yoy for June accelerated to +8% on average, vs +4% in May and +7% in April;2Q25 finished at +6%, still slower than 1Q25 at +20%Chinese brandsXinjieHCFA10%Jun-2May-24eb-2Mar-2522%Source : Deutsche Bank, MiR,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong AutomationComponentSuppliers inChinaTaiwanesOverseasbrandHiavinAirtae(alessales sermoeNegative299ealth7%10%%6 11July2025ManufacturingChinaAutomationMarketFigure 2: China automation order growth trend from different resources - we believe automation growth has peaked in1Q25 and should slow down in 2Q25 and 2H2550%N30%10%-10%-30%-50%Jan-2020Mar-2020May-2020Jul-2020Sep-2020DBChinaautomationorderindicator(basedmostlyonlocalnames)*China Orders (ex FX) - Average (FANUC, Yaskawa, SMC, THK, Siemens, ABB)JapanMachineToolOrders(YoYexFX)-ChinaSource : Deutsche Bank, MIR, company data, NBS, Wind, Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 3: YoY growth - Taiwanese companies were hit by the sharp appreciation of the Taiwanese Dollar against theChineseYuanandUSDollarsinceMay202580%60%40%20%0%-20%40%222222222333333333333444444444444555555Source : Deutsche Bank, company dataPage 4 11July2025ManufacturingChinaAutomationMarketFigure 8: Share price performance: Taiwanese names were hit the most by the US tariff new