亚太工业行业情报简报（5月28日至7月11日）

IndustryAPAC Industrials微信 Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst+852-2203 5884Edison YuResearch Analyst+1-212-250-7263Laura LiResearch Associate+1-212-250-2266 11July2025ManufacturingAPAC Industrialsand the policies are positive for the sentiment, in our view. For solar, solar demandnow accounts for<5% of revenue for most of the automation names we cover, andthere is little signs of a recovery of solar capex just yet, in our view. For the potentialsupply-side reform, we await more details potentially from the Politburo meeting inlate July.Figure 1: Similar to 2015-16 case, capacity utilization andPPl inflation have stayed low for 32 months%858075700680.'10Source : Deutsche Bank Research, NBSTesla humanoid robot: Change of humanoid head;Suspension of component procurement; Potential Gen 3launch at AGMChange of Tesla humanoid robot business head, RQiters reported on 6 June thatMilan Kovac, the head of Tesla's Optimus humgnolid robot program, announced hisplans to step down. Kovac became the lead Of the program in 2022 when he wasappointed director of Optimus and A@opilot Engineering, and he took on the roleTesla's autopilot teams, wak言on his role.Suspension of Tesla humanoid component procurement. Sina News reported on2 July that Tesla is modifying hardware design for Optimus and suspendedcomponent procurement half a month ago. Tesla did not state explicitly that thecompany will reduce overall component procurement, but will decide on a newproduction and resume the procurement after the new design is finalised - theadjustment could take two months. According to Sina News, Tesla has orderedenough components for 1,200 units of Optimus by end of May 2025, and hasmanufactured 1,ooo units of Optimas. Optimus is facing several hardware issuesincludingoverheatingof jointmotors,lowloadcapacityofthedexteroushand,short life of the transmission devices, and short battery life. Tesla is currentlylooking for multiple dexterous hand suppliers to send samples and is trying at least3 different technical designs. In terms of software, Tesla may use more syntheticdatatotrainthehumanoidto improveitsautonomousoperation capabilitiesandthe success rate of completing complex movements. One supplier Sina Newstalked to thinks Tesla might release Optimus Gen 3 at the AGM in November 2025.Implications for our APAc Industrials sector: As we wrote in our feedback reportwith a Chinese humanoid robot expert that that the road towards thePage 2 Figure 2: Today's excess capacity is concentrated indownstreamindustriesCapacityutilizationPPI, ths%, YoYAutos15Non-metalic mineral productsFoodsNov-15Communication devicesStart of 'supply-side reform"10Medicaland pharmaceuticalElectricalequipmentTextileSpecial purposemachinery6UtilityNon-ferrous metalsFerrous metalsChemicalmaterials&productsGerneral machineryCoalChemical fiberPetroleum&gas10Mining'12'14'16'18'20'22'24Source : Deutsche Bank Research, NBS JapanEMEAAPACIndustrialscommercialisation of humanoid robots is not straightforward or linear (link toreport). While the delay of procurementis unhelpful, the fact that Tesla is modifyinghardware design for Optimus humanoid robot opens up opportunities for newsupplierstoenteritssupplychain,inourview.Inourcoverage,HarmonicDriveinJapan flagged in May 2025 of a delay in humanoid robot reducer orders, althoughit isunclearto uswhetherthedelay camefromTesla orotherhumanoid robotOEMs. Sanhua gave an update in March that management is very confident oftaking a leading role in actuators for Tesla's humanoid robots. Shuanghuancommented in April that they are working with Tesla and a few Chinese humanoidrobot manufacturers, although no orders have been received so far. Shuanghuanand Hengli Hydraulic (both Buy-rated) remain our top picks for the humanoid robot12.0%Manufacturing demand indicator: Slowdown of Japanmachine tool orders; Yaskawa soft orders; China automationmixed; Global demand indicator moving up?Further slowdown of Japan machine tool order growth in June. June Japanmachine tool orders were ￥133.2bn (link to report). Yoy growth was -0.5%, the firstnegative reading in past nine months. This marked a further slowdown vs +3% inMay, and finished 2Q25 at +3% vs +7% in 1Q25. Mom growth showed low singledigit growth at +3%, but still underperforming the normal seasonality of +10% inthe past five years.Overseas orders were ￥93.3bn.Yoy growth wasflattish (vs +7%in May and +9% in 1Q25) - growth has been decelerating since March.Yaskawa soft orders in FY1Q. In FY1Q (3M ending May 2025),Yaskawa reported-6% yoy (DBe -3% yoy ex-FX) order decline (link to report). By region, only Japanrecorded growth of +6% yoy whilst all the other regions posted declines, somewhatdragged by FX - Americas -1% yoy (DBe +4% ex-FX), Europe-29% (DBe -27% ex-FX), China -5% (DBe flat ex-FX) and Other Asia -6% (DBe +12% ex-FX).China automation market growth accelerated in June but little underlyingimprovement. The yoy growth rate of automation sales/orders in China of the ~15companies we t