国防投资支出动态：6月同比增长2%，过去三个月增长3%

e Sheila Kahyaoglu * I Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216I sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.comGreg Konrad, CFA * IEquity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2391 1gkonrad@jefferies.comEllen Page *IEquity Associate+1 (212) 323-3381 lepage@jefferies.comKyle Wenclawiak * IEquity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 I kwenclawiak@jefferies.comConor Walters * IEquity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 /cwalters@jefferies.com JefferiesInvestment outlays in June of s27.0BB were up 2.0% y-0-y. RDT&E advanced 0.8% with Procurementup 3.2%.RDT&E was driven by Air Force up 8.0% and Navy +0.2%, offset by Defense Wide down 11.7% with a3.3% decline for Army.Procurement was up 3.2%, driven by Army up 21.1% and Navy up 8.0%. Air Force was down 10.7%and Defense Wide -1.9% in June.Exhibit 2 - Investment Outlays ($BB) Grew 2.0% in June, Up 2.7% on Rolling-Three-Month BasisOct-23Nov-23Dec-23-uerFeb-24May-245124Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Jun-25z-unrJun-25Y-o-Y Percentage ChanYoYRoling 12 months year agoSource: Treasury Data, Jefferies estimatesOver the trailing 3 months, investment outl&ys are up 2.7%, with $73.8BB expended over that periodThis follows the 8.2% increase in Q4. 1S9% increase in Q3, 8.6% increase in Q2, 9.9% increase in Q1,Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. R&D2.0594.9921.80956411.8173,6043.02,0125,0936,4406051,9955.260207.6834.8991.9982.4376.05313.5104,1246,6221,1121,8233,1528,4704,19510,9961,4954,4572,4464,286257857812.0021495.4182.129120.211,8914,8695,36363712,7601,4202,8944,7812,94312,0385.9824.90g69913.73812529.212.022,3155,0484,30381818.991.6012,1984,8663.81.822,6116,9265,8231,3792,5148,1789.8612,1964,4575,30212,6741,3451,9503,9512,6162,2715,2714.36361512,5191.5032.2525,4192.96312,1378.8077,3981,82321,3032,1715,7903.40412,7671,3583,9663,8942,59211,8101,7745,3152,74012810,7654.27818.901,8004,5244,1432,0532,7072,4055,7924,9631,1051.4072,1983,455108922.2084.943.51776912.481.2242.0792.42,8006.4424,29263314,1681,2112,2656,7072,68612.869$2,312$5,966$4.808$13,730$1,252$2,261$6,210$3,042$12,7662.8006.4424.29214.1681.2112.2656.7072.68612.86921.1%8.0%10.7%1.9%3.2%-3.3%0.2%8.0%11.7%0.8%$15,369$12,549182518717.71311,45036.096.2%015.1%15.3%-8.8%3.7%11.9%-12.3%0.9%-0.2%-0.9%$24,880$62,358$52,212$8,255$147,701$14,220$25,799$60,050$33,428$133,49956,39618.0025.483.7%,284140,9618.9%8.0%40.3%9.6%5.6%e JefferiesExhibit 3 - Monthly Investment Outlays (SBB) Tracking Up 2.7% on Rolling 3 Month Basis$29Monthly Outlays ($ billions)$24$14Average |$9Exhibit 4 looks at the enacted Defense Budget vs outlays. For FY21, investment outlays of s247BBwere 99% of the enacted investment budget of $250BB. Spending in FY22 of $243BB compared to theS267BB of investment funding in the FY22 Omnibus bill, or 91% of the total budget authority. Outlaysfor the 12 months in FY23 were S264BB, accounting for 87% of the $302BB in funding that waspassedin December with the FY23 Appropriations Bill. FY24 continued the lag with $290BB of investmentoutlays representing 91% of Approps, or s30BB of underspending despite a 10% advance in investmentseen investment spending rise 6% or 72% of total investment Appropriations under the CR.Underspending$350$300Authority$250ebpng$200she14186121$100$50vestment Outlays ($BB)O&M outlays of s27.8BB were down 4.3% y-0-y in June and up 1.8% over the past three months, witha 6.2% advance on a rolling-12-month basis.Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 10 of this report. 5320 $30925%$3022020%$26326$24315%$2039919510%. Outlays (%$16616$5%0%5%10%Investment Budget Authority ($BB) JefferiesExhibit 5 - 0&M Outlays (SMM): Up 4.3% in June and Up 1.8% Over Trailing Three MonthsOct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25-unrJun-24Jun-25Y-o-Y Percentage Change3 Mo 20243 Mo 2025YoYRolling 12 months year agoRolling 12 monthsY-o-Y % ChangeSource: Treasury Data, Jefferies estimatesContinuing Resolutions are the norm. Every year since 2010 has seen parts of the government startunder a CR. Since FY10, an average of four CRs have been passed per year, with an average durationof 169 days. This includes the government operating under full-year CRs in FY11 and FY13. It is alsopossible to carve out a defense bill (or bills involving other agencies), with part of the governmenthaving a full-year Appropriations bill and the remainder of the government covered under a CR.In FY19, the defense budget passed by the start of the fiscal year, with the rest of the governmentunder a CR. FY25 is unique, given a full-year CR for the government, but defense having flexibility withAppropriations and allocations kicked to the DoD with input from Congress.FY21 started under a CR that continued through December 27 until the President signed the FY21Appropriations bill. FY22 similarly started under a CR before an extension through March 18 and anadditiona