《Haul&Hustle LIVE》每周网络直播

c Q Stephanie Moore*IEquity Analyst(615) 934-1384 | smoore@jefferies.comJoseph Hafling * IEquity Associate+1 (212) 778-8707 1jhafling@jefferies.comPJ Sullivan * IEquity Associate+1 (646) 805-5461 Ipsullivan@jefferies.com 00:00:00:00 - 00:00:18:09UnknownWelcome to another episode of Haul & Hustle here, as always with Steph Moore and JoeHalfling. And a very timely one today because, in the last 24 hours, Steph and Joe have putout their two Q preview for rails, which came out last night, and for the LTL space, whichcame out, a couple of hours ago.00:00:18:09 - 00:00:39:12UnknownSo we'll definitely go through those. And then, Steph, did a company visit where she can talkthrough and then we have some, some, some general questions, about the space and acouple of names. So with that over to you, Steph. Great. Hi, everybody. Good to see you all.And, hope you had a good fourth of 4th of July weekend00:00:39:14-00:00:59:04UnknownYeah. So we have our two previews out. I'll start with the LTL kind of walk through what we'reexpecting, what we like. I'll kick it over to Joe to maybe talk through some of the rails, andthen, can can kind of move into that. But, you know, look for 2025, I think we talked a little bitabout this after the, May updates.00:00:59:04 - 00:01:23:Q5UnknownAnd I think, you know, the expectations should be that this is still a really weak industrialmacro macro backdrop. We've seen that with PMl data, which is a, you know, longest periodof contraction that we've ever seen. I think the volumes certainly reflect that. You know, aswe look at the quarter itself. And really, I think it's going to be important what they call out interms of three, two as well.00:01:23:07 - 00:01:45:17UnknownYou know, we still expect, you know, the volume environment to be weak. You know, fromour conversation conversations. We're not expecting much of a rebound into June either. Ithink, you know, the idea would be that, you know, the overall volume trends within LTL willremain sub seasonal in June. So I think that's kind of the key point.00:01:45:19 - 00:02:08:16 9e UnknownSo, you know, as such, you know, we've calibrated estimates accordingly with, you know.oDFL tonnage down, call it high single digits in the negative territory as well by only downabout low single digits. And then actually our best asset based tonnage up till the digits kindof bucking the trend there based on some of their own kind of company specific wins thatthat they pulled out as of late.00:02:08:18 - 00:02:35:11UnknownSo a long way of saying we expect two key volumes to be, you know, below historical normsWe also expect for into the second half of 2025 for volumes to also be, very muted. Thatsaid, at least optically, we do believe that you're going to we will start to benefit or the LTLthe difficult comps for at least the first half of this year.00:02:35:17 - 00:02:57:12UnknownAnd you'll start to see, you know, I guess less that volume standpoint. But keep in mind, ourview is that the underlying macro will remain weak. That said, pricing is still holding up.We've seen it with dries. You've seen it with, you know, the contract rules that are called out.So we still would expect pricing to remain an offset to those negative volumes.00:02:57:14 - 00:03:26:06UnknownSo it's a long way of saying, the environment is not particularly constructive or we're notbaking in or expecting any kind of commentary around of freight recovery. So with that inmind, you know, we're sticking to our strategy, which is liking those names with companyspecific stories and, and idiosyncratic opportunities to outperform. So, you know, we've saidthis many times now, xpo in particular, their ability to see their ability to see marginexpansion or improvement.00:03:26:06 - 00:03:48:15UnknownThis year, the only LTL player to see that for now, what should be two years in a row. Weabove seasonal, margin performance through the second half, obviously, of this year as wellas they're benefiting from these pricing actions in particular, the other name that's had a nicerun. 00:03:48:15 - 00:04:09:11UnknownBut what we'd love is still a very compelling valuation is our best. At only 12 times 2026 EPs.Now, you do get some value here. And, you know, as we called out last week, if you tuned ingrowth over the next two years as the cycle turns for our fast.00:04:09:11 - 00:04:35:24UnknownSo really compelling name for really compelling opportunity for that name. And then lastlySaia. Controversial one. But definitely think it's poised for really massive margin recoveryand long term EPs growth once the market term as they continue to benefit from this prettylike those three names in particular within LTL.00:04:35:24 - 00:05:00:18UnknownSo we've raised our price targets. Again all in all in the context of still not a particularlyconstructive freight environment. So I'll pause there and kick it over to Joe, who can talkthrough the rail. And if there's anything else you want to add in terms of the LTL