面临新的阻力 - ETF退出风险

EquitiesChemicalsTaiwanJeremy Chen*Head of Research, TaiwanHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedjeremy.cm.chen@hsbc.com.tw+886 2 6631 2866Jess Hsieh*Associate,Taiwan Non-techHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedjess.ch.hsieh@hsbc.com.tw+886 2 6631 2871* Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant toFINRAregulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewEPS Y-0-Y (%)2025e2026e2025e2026eNM44%0.6153%58%01223%14%1.1170%43%Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (Taiwan)Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com ROE (%)Div. Yield (%)2026e2025e0.71.82.51.43.61.85.37.52.2 P/B (x),2025e0.70.61.1 2026e1.83.13.03.7 Formosa Group Estimates6. FPCNewest.(TWDm)FY25eFY26eFY27eSales181,310185,630185,531Op profits(210)(457)239Net profits5,2957,6059,992EPS (TWD)0.831.191.57Margin (%)Gross margin7.06.87.2Op margin(0.1)(0.2)0.1Net margin2.94.15.4YoY (%)Sales(9.4)2.4(0.1)Gross Profits24.40.55.4Op profits(95.0)117.3(152.3)Pre-tax profits(349.3)43.631.4Net profits(529.9)43.631.4EPS (TWD)(529.9)43.631.4Source: HSBC estimates 8. FCFC(TWDm)SalesGross ProfitsOp profitsNet profitsEPS (TWD)Margin (%)Gross marginOp marginNet marginYoY (%)SalesOp profitsNet profitsEPS (TWD)Source: HSBC estimates9. FPCC(TWDm)SalesOp profitsNet profitsEPS (TWD)Margin (%)Op marginNet marginYoY (%)SalesOp profitsPre-tax profitsNet profitsEPS (TWD)Source: HSBC estimates Key highlights10. FPG's 2025 YTD share priceperformance10%5%0%-5%-2%-10%-8%-15%-20%TAIEXNYPSource: TEJ12. FPG's EPS trend (TWD, 2022-25e)6.005.685.004.054.003.002.001.26 1.511.00(1.00)2022FPCSource: e: TEJ, HSBC estimates13. List of ethylene plant closuresCompanyMaruzen PetrochemicalJG Summit OlefinsVersalisdemitsu KosanExxonMobilSinopec MaomingLotte Chemical TitanSinopec TianjinSABICShenyang Paraffin ChemicalQenos PtyOthersTotal% of 2024 capacitySource: Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company, HSBC estimates Source: Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company, HSBCcalculations Source: Chemial Market Analytics by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company, HSBCcalculations Source: Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company20. Global HDPE operating rate notexpectedtorecoveruntil2027000'95,0004,0003,0002,0001,0002012 2015 2018 2021 2024e 2027eCapadityaddsOperating ralte (RHS)Source: SAP Global, Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, HSBC calculations; ktpa(LHS)22. Global propylene operating rate12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000201220152018202120242027eI Capadity addsOperalting rale (RHS)Source: SAP Global, Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, HSBC calculations; ktpa(LHS) Source: SAP Global, Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, HSBC calculations; ktpa(LHS) Valuation and risksFormosaCurrent price:Plastics (FPC)TWD34.501301 TTTarget price:TWD28.00ReduceDownside:-18.8%NanYaPlasticsCurrent price:(NYP)TWD27.301303 TTTarget price:TWD20.00ReduceDownside:-26.7%FormosaCurrent price:Chemicals &TWD22.70Fibre (FCFC)Target price:1326TTTWD18.00Downside:Reduce-20.7% RisksUpside risks: (1) stronger-than-expected demand for refiningand petrochemical products supported by better economicgrowth; (2) delay in the launch of new refining andpetrochemical production start-ups; and (3) stronger-than-expected crude oil prices driven by geopolitical risks.Downside risks: (1) lower-than-expected crude oil prices;and (3) unexpected operational issues causing a prolongedshutdown of operations. ValuationWe cut 2025-27e earnings by 4-7% to reflect worse-than-expected 2Q25 preliminary results. We use a DCF model tovalue FPCC and incorporate HSBC's updated cost of equityassumptions (see Cost of Equity 2025,30 June).Our DCFassumptions include a WACC of 7.3% (unchanged), based onmarket risk premium of 4.25% (previously 4.75%), and beta of1.02 (unchanged) (source for beta is Bloomberg), a COD of2.5% (unchanged), as well as a terminal growth rate of 1.8%(previously 2.0%) due to fragile sector recovery prospects. Ourtarget price falls to TWD32.00 from TWD33.00, implying a P/Bmultiple of 1.0x for 2025e. Our target price impliesc12% ./;downside. We maintain our Hold rating. Despite thatwe see a soft end demand outlook capping margins, dividendyield should provide support for valuation. Financials & valuation: Nan Ya PlasticsFinancialstatementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary (TWDm)Revenue259,608273,099275,799268,805EBITDA23,14930,245Depreciation & amorisation-22,702-25,202-27,827Operating profitEBIT4485,0449,762Net interest-2,063-500-500PBT4.52311,19116.695HSBC PBT4,52311,19116.695Taxation-1,216-1,251-1,866Net profit3.3408.44013,329HSBC net profit3,3408,44013,329Cash flow summary (TWDm)Cash flow from operations18,78629,64326,640Capex-12,447-25,000-26,250Cash flow from investment-17,900-34,676-28,299-5.615Dividends-5,552-6.752Change in net debt15,22110,5858,411FCF equity6,3384,643390Balance sheet summary (TWDm)218,071216,494213,474Tangible fixed a