印度保险行业增长趋势改善

EquitiesInsuranceIndiaRahil Shah*Analyst, India FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimiterahil.shah@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6628 3719Abhishek Murarka*Senior Analyst, FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedabhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in+91 96 1996 4653Gaurav Sharma*Analyst, Insurance and Diversified FinancialsHSBCSecuurities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitecgaurav11.sharma@hsbc.co.in+ 91 22 2268 2011*Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India)Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Trends forthelife insurancesector1: APE trend for the industry2:APE trend for private insurers30030%18025%25016020%14020015%12010%1505%100100-5%-10%-15%-20%Industry APE (INR bn)- y-o-y growth (%,RHS)Source: IRDAlI, HSBCSource: IRDAI, HSBC3: Individual APE trend for the industry4: Individual APE trend for private insurers20040%14030%12015020%10010%1000%-10%20%2222Industry Individual APE (INR bn)y-o-y growth (%,RHS)Source: IRDAI, HSBCSource: IRDAI, HSBC5: Small private insurer reported healthy growth, up 9% y-o-y, faster than large private60%40%20%0%-20%Top private insurers- Other private insurersNote: Top private insurers include six insurers: AXISMAXLIFE, BALIC, TATAAIA, SBILIFE, HDFCLIFE (including Exide Life), and IPRU.Source: Life Insurance Council, IRDAl, HSBC Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other2023their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Rahil Shah, Abhishek Murarka and Gaurav SharmaImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that100%relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating2024each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingFrom 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 122022be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a20195% and20%below the current share price,the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20%below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce.Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, changein target price or estimates).Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price.Prior to this date, HSBC's rating structure was applied on the following basis:regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected thestock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight,the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including theforecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12months (or1o percentagepoints fora stock classifiedas Volatile*).Fora stock to be classified as Underweight,the stock wasexpected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentagepoints for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral.@前瞻经济学人APF(unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However, stocks whichwe did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the past month'saverage of the daily 365-day moving average volat