印度农业投入品1QFY26预览：预计国内表现更佳

EquitiesAgro inputsIndiaSaurabh Jain*Analyst, India Materials and EnergyHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsaurabh2jain@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6164 0691* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant toFINRAregulationsHSBC in Extel Survey 2025Thank you for your supportSee resultsPE (x)FY26eFY27eFY2520.615.937.233.222.519.441.434.141.832.956.242.4Issuer of report: HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com UpsidelDownside+17.1%-13.4%+11.7%-12.4%-36.5%-27.0% RatingBuyHoldReduceReduce P/B (x)ROE %FY26eFY27eFY26e1.71.71.68.46.05.33.615.25.321.49.99.99.823.93.43.23.07.81.11.11.11.9 1QFY26-EExpect good showing by the domestic companies but LatAm weakness topressure UPLExhibit 2: India agro inputs - 1QFY26 quarterly estimatesRevenue (INRm)EBITDA (INRm)PAT (INRm)Company1QFY254QFY251QFY26ey-o-y _q-o-q1QFY254QFY251QFY26ey-o-yq-o-q1QFY254QFY251QFY26e y-0-y q-0-qUPL90,670155,73091,5771%-41%11,46032,37012,2167%-62%-3,8408,960-3,097PI Industries20,68917,87122,2978%25%5,8324,5566,2687%38%4,4883,3054,7766%DAGRI4,9364,4205,3809%22%7171,097781%6-29%4897554910%Bayer Crop16,31210,46418,26912%75%3,1401,7083,1490%84%2,5421,4332,5591%Rallis India7,8304,3008,64010%101%960-2009964%nm480-32053612%Tata Chemicals37,89035,09038,3351%9%5,7403,2704,863-15%49%1,350-190485-64%Sourc: Company repors,HSBCestimateExhibit 3: India agro inputs - revenue performance (y-o-y)(year-end March)1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25UPL27%18%21%4%-17%-19%-28%-15%1%9%10%11%PI29%31%19%12%24%20%18%11%8%5%0%3%DAGRI8%24%10%17%-6%14%3%-1%34%6%10%20%Domestic performance betterBayer Crop18%6%5%2%4%11%-8%-19%-6%7%11%32%while generic exporters toRallis17%31%0%3%-9%-13%-5%-17%0%12%-13%-1%facepressure inLatAmSectorExports focused28%25%20%8%3%0%-5%-2%5%7%5%7%Domestic focused14%20%5%7%-4%4%-4%-12%9%8%3%17%Source: Company reports, HSBC estimatesExhibit 4: India agro inputs - EBITDA performanceEBITDA growth (y-o-y),EBITDA margin (%)△ margin y-o-y (bp)Company1QFY252QFY253QFY2544QFY251QFy26el1QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY251QFY26e1QFY252QFY253QFY254QFY251QFY26eUPL-28%0%420%7%13%14%20%21%13%(512)(128)1,561706PI25%6%0%7%28%28%27%25%28%37034(13)12DAGRI64%13%22%9%15%24%17%25%15%272148155308Rallis-13%25%A-29%nm4%12%18%8%-5%12%(181)190(194)(603)Bayer Crop-26%77%0%19%11%2%16%17%(516)(828)(1,153)412SectorExport-focused4%1%65%-50%7%17%19%15%17%17%(113)(117)71167Domestic-focused-2%3%210%35%11%20%21%23%23%21%(71)(47)774359NoteYarnd March.Surc: ompany rorHBCesma2 Sowing trends encouraging, rainfall recovers in 2H JuneExhibit 5: India - Monsoon sowing progress by crop (at 07 July 2025)Area sown (m Ha).y-o-yCropsNormal area (m Ha)202520242025Rice40.36.96.57%Total Pulses13.04.33.135%Arhar4.51.61.9-11%Urdbean3.30.50.55%Moongbean3.61.70.7146%Total Coarse Cereals18.17.76.421%Jowar1.50.60.519%Bajra7.13.11.784%Ragi1.20.10.1-29%Maize7.93.94.0-2%Total Oilseeds19.510.89.514%Groundnut4.51.851%Soyabean12.77.55%Sunflower0.10.00.02%Sugarcane5.35.55.51%Total Jute and Mesta.0.70.50.6-3%Cotton13.08.07.91%Grand total109.743.739.411%Source: Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, HSBCExhibit 6: India - Monsoon crop sowing progress by state (at 07 July 2025)Area sown (m Ha)y-o-yStateNormal area (m Ha)202520242025Punjab3.52.52.123%Chhattisgarh4.21.71.425%11.54.04.2Uttar Pradesh-4%Haryana2.81.31.3-6%Maharashtra15.510.110.3-2%Odisha4.60.40.283%Madhya Pradesh13.65.25.03%Assam2.20.20.3-18%Andhra Pradesh3.20.30.3-2%Bihar3.80.40.4-9%Gujarat7.23.22.530%Rajasthan13.26.63.2105%West Bengal4.70.50.5-2%Karnataka7.84.04.1-2%Grand total97.840.535.813%Source: Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, HSBC Sowing +11% y-0-y at 07 July2025, with major categoriesreporting higher sowingOverall, 40% sowingcompleted (vs full seasonnormal) but only 17%completed for riceRajasthancontributing73%of the total sowing increasein key states Earlymonsoonarrivals-nocleartrendonaheadlinebasisOn a monthly basis, June has seen better rains, followed by less rain in July and August.In the last 50 years, early monsoon arrival (25 May or before) has happened four times:2009 (deficit), 2001 (below normal), 1999 (normal) and 1990 (above normal)→ In the two good years - 1999 and 1990 - the IMD forecasts were 108% and above normalDrawing a parallel to 2025, the IMD forecast of 106% augurs wellExhibit 7: India early monsoon arrival - deviation by month% departure vs LPAYearDate of arrivalIMD forecastJune199019-May>Normal6.212199925-May108%-45.1200123-May%86-8.335.6200923-May96%-22.7-47.2Note: Cut-off date for early monsoon rival 25 May or before.LPA - long period average.Source: IMD, HSBCExhibit 8: India water reservoir levels (at 03 July 2025)200%180%160%140%120%106%104%100%72%80%61%60%36%40%31% 32%23%20%0%Northern RegionEastern regionWestern RegionCentral region Southern RegionDeviation from last yearDeviation from 10 yr avg.Source: Central Water Commission, HSBC JulyAugustSeptember