全球货运监测：美国关税更新及其影响

EquitiesMarineGlobalParashJain*Global Head of Transport & Logistics ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2996 6717Deepak Maurya*, CFAAnalyst, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+85228224292Bruce Chu*, CFAAssociate, Asia Transportbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+8522996662Cathy Huang*, CFAAssociaate,AsiaTransporThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk+8522996 4506Kevin Li*AssociateGuangzhou*Employed byanon-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, andisnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHSBC Global Investment Research PodcastsListen to our insightsFind out moreIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Container shipping - near-term demand supply trends2. US NRF-- Changes in forecasts of US containerised imports (% y-o-y)20%15%10%2.1%5%0%-5%-10%20-8.1%6-15%9-20%-25%:%-30%e-35%GMay-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-252Q25eSPrevious forecast (June 2025)Current forecast (July 2025)Solrte:NRF3. US NRF - Container imports trends and forecasts (m TEU)2.72.52.32.11.91.71.5JanFebMarAprMayJuninrAugSepOct20252025 - NRF forecasts (New)2025 - NRF forecasts (Old)Source: NRF NRF's latest estimates pointto better imports across Juneto October, but still implyy-o-y declines Ocean shipping disruptions in the Middle East6. Hormuz Strait transits (GTm): no7. Hormuz Strait transits: LNG transitsmeaningful shifts detecteddropped 30% vs 12 June40%7.520%6.50%-3%6.0-20%-12%5.530%40%5Total Strait of Hormuz Transits (5-DMA GT million)% change in 5DMA of transits 07 Jul vs 12 June 2025Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 7 July 2025.Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 7 July 2025.8. Gulf of Aden vessel arrivals (GTm):9. Gulf of Aden vessel arrivals by sector:declined by 68% since mid-December 2023container affected the most6.00%16th Dec5.0 ↓-20%4.0-40%3.0-60%-53%2.0-80%-86%25-100%ContainerBulkTotal Gulf of Aden Transits (5-DMA GT million)% change in 5DMA of transits 08 Jul vs 1H Dec 2023Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 8 July 2025.Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 8 July 2025.10. Suez Canal transits (GTm): down 68%11. Suez Canal transits by sector: LNG andsince mid-December, the lowest levelcontainer affected the mostsince Ever Given blockage in 20215.50%5.016th Dec4.5-20%4.0-40%3.53.0-60%2.52.0%08-1.51.0%8-%98-%88-100%-Sep-2322忆忆Total Suez Canal Transits (5-DMA GT million)% change in 5DMA of transits 08 Jul vs 1H Dec 2023Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 8 July 2025.Source: Clarksons Research. Note: data as of 8 July 2025. ProductCrude-38%60%-75% Spot freight rates developmentThe SCFldropped by 1.7%w-o-w, the fifth week of a losing streak, mainly due to a ratedecreaseof19.7%and16.1%on the routetoAustralia/NewZealand andPersianGulf,respectively. While rates to Us West Coast and East Coast went up 5.1% and 1.2% w-o-w,respectively.12. The SCFI dropped 1.7% w-o-w, the fifthweek of a losing streak4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000SCFI CompositeSource: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Priced as of 11 July 2025.Container shipping: SCFIs futures rates developmentAs of 11 July, the SCFIS (Shanghai-Europe) futures expiring in Aug rose 10% w-0-w, andfutures expiring in Oct-25 to Feb-26 increased by 2-3% w-o-w.The contracts expiring in Aug are now trading at a 3% discount and those expiring in Oct-25 toFeb-26 are 27-36% discount to the current spot rate.14. ScFIS (Europe) futures in all expiredates rose w-o-wSCFIS(Europe) futures (EC), USD/TEU12.0%10.0%10%8.0%6.0%4.0%3%3%2.0%2%0.4%0.0%-2.0%-1.4%-1.0%-1.6%-4.0%Aug-25 expiryOct-25 expiry Dec-25 expiry Feb-26 expiry% d-o-d% w-0-wSource: Wind. Priced as of 11 July 2025. 13. ScFI rates change since 2 May (beforeUS-China tariff pause announcement)80%70%60%50%3%40%30%20%10%0.0%0%-10%20%7%Ame18West Coast S.PersianUS VSource: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Priced as of 11 July 2025.15. ScFIS (Europe) futures premium/(discount) over spot ratesSCFIS(Europe) futures (EC), USD/TEU0%-5%-3%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-34%-40%36%Aug-25 expiry Oct-25 expiry Dec-25 expiryFeb-26 expiry% premium/(discount) to spot ratesSource: Wind. Priced as of 11 July 2025. ScFIdropped for fifthstraight week, but still 29%higher since 2MaySCFIS futures expiring in Augtrading at a 3% discount tospot Dry bulk TCE rate developmentThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose 2% w-o-w, led by higher earnings across vessel segmentsexceptCapesizewhichdropped12%duetocontinuouslyweak ironoreshipmentsandabundant capacity in the Pacific basin. Panamax rates rose 14% on strong demand in the NorthAtlantic, with an obvious spillovereffect into the Pacific market.Trumpadministrationhas announcedrenewedreciprocaltariffs on7July,effectivefrom1August. Additionally, on 10 July, Trump imposed sectoral tariffs of 50% on copper imports,effective on1August,matchingthecurrent50%levyon aluminiumands