中国电力公用事业2Q/1H25业绩预览

EquitiesElectric UtilitiesChinaDaniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976Evan Li*Head, Asia EnergyTransition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619Shayla Xu*Associate, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedshayla.b.xu@hsbc.com.hk+85222887378Vivian Zhou*AssociateGuangzhounot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 2oth edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Researchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com 微2Q/1H25resultspreview2Q/1H25 results previewCompany,TickerPRC GAAPHuadian Power1071HK/600027CHHuaneng Power902 HK/600011 CHChina Yangtze Power600900 CHLongyuan Power916HK/001289 CHCGN1816 HKIFRS reportingChina Power2380 HKCR Power836 HKSource: Bloomberg, HSBC estimatesHuadian Power: we expect Huadian Power to deliver a results miss in 2Q25, with net profitup 42% y-0-y to RMB1,936m under PRC GAAP. We believe the results miss could likely beexpectation on earnings growth driven by dark spread expansion.Huaneng Power: we expect Huaneng Power to book a net profit after minority interest ofRMB4.0 bn in 2Q25 under PRC GAAP, below market expectation. The results miss mayrelate to a high expectation, and lower tariffs in the quarter from its domestic thermal operation.Jiangsuprovincewitnesseditsmonthlypowertariffdroppedby22%inJune2025 alone, while Huaneng has 7% thermal capacity exposure to the province.CR Power: We expect CR Power's interim results to fall in market expectation, withrenewables earnings thanks to its high exposure to Central, Eastern and Sothern China, themost developed areas. We note market's expectation on CRP's coal power tariffs shouldalso be the lowest among peers.China Power International: We forecast China Power may report results miss for its 1H25earnings, as dragging down by its hydro segments due to weaker hydro generation (5M25hydro generation: -27% y-o-y). With this, we expect China Power to deliver an attributed netprofit of RMB2,205m, implying a y-0-y decline of 14% .China Yangtze Power: We estimate CYP to report net profit of RMB7.8bn for 2Q25,implying a 5% y-0-y increase, on resilient hydro generation (2Q25 generation: +1.6% y-0-y)even comparing to a historical high base last year. We expect CYP's tariffs would likely stayflattish, and only drop 1% y-o-y in the second quarter.Longyuan: We expect earnings to drop y-o-y in 2Q25, due to weakness in wind resources,grid power generation was +3% YoY in 2Q25 following the disposal of coal capacity, whilegeneration from renewables was +17% YoY (vs. capacity growth: +20% YoY by end-1Q25).We expect the curtailment issue to gradually resolve as grid capacity ramps up - theNingxia-Hunan UHV transmission grid is scheduled to be operational by 2H25.CGN: We expect earnings to be dragged by a drop in power tariffs, increase in D&A andthe retirement of preferential tax treatment for Yangjiang Unit 6 and Taishan Unit 2, despitea 4% YoY rise in power generation volume in 2Q25 (on consolidated basis). While we haveseen powertariffs stabilisingm-o-mrecently,thepotential increase infuel costs remains arisk to watch for 2026 with its procurement contract with parent subject to renewal. Over thelong term, asset injection and accelerated approval for new projects should enhancecapexcommitment,andalongleadtimefornewprojects.Coming results scheduleCompanyTickerInterim results release dateHuaneng Power902HK/600011CH1816 HK14-AugLongyuan Power H/A916 HK/001289 CH6nv-02Huadian Power H/A1071HK/600027CH22-AugChina Power International2380 HKCR Power836 HKChina Yangtze Power600900 CH30-AugSource: Wind, Bloomberg, Company data 3 CGN Recent industry updateMarket tariff outlookWholesale market tariff has stabilised in major provinces in China, i.e. Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc,from a deeper fall earlier. With consumption picking up and coal price bottoming out, we expectmonthly electricity tariffs to remain largely stable within the year.However, with the market focusmoving toward the trend in 2026, we believe concerns over lower tariffs will continue to rise untilwe have better visibility at end-2025. In our view, provinces that have seen deeper fall in markettariffs, i.e. Guangdong, should see less downside next year. Within our coverage, it could be CRPower's turn to see less tariff pressure in 2026.Power consumption growth to pick up1H25 was the weakest first half for power consumption growth since COVID-19, due to sluggishmacro activities and a warmerwinter.Situation is starting to warm up as heat wave hit acrossChina - daily power load in early July jumped to a new historical high, per BJX data. For 2H25,weexpectarecovery inpowerdemandgrowthduetothelowbase inthesameperiod lastyear.Coal price bottoming outChina Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price has see