印度电力：电气化时代...

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingNTPC.IN0PWGR.IN0POWF.IN0RECL.IN0RNW0ADANIGR.INASIAXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedPWGR.IN, RNW, ADANIGR.IN valuation is EV/EBITDA (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe remain positive on the Indian power sector from a long-term perspective, given our belief in this electrification theme. Interms of stocks our preference order continues to be NTPC, ReNew, PFC, REC and Power Grid.s微信INDIA INDUSTRIALS AND INFRASTRUCTURE 9eBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP DETAILSINDIA'S RESOURCES...SIMILAR TO CHINALimited oil-gas resources but abundant coal reserves and good sunshine: In oil- India is ranked 22nd globally. Similar withnatural gas- globally India is ranked 21 st with just 50 Billion cubic meters of reserves vs Russia with 30x more reserves. On theother hand when it comes to coal, China is ranked 3globally with 173 Bn tons of reserves and India not far behind with 141 Bntons of reserves. Further, India and parts of China have good solar irradiation levels and receive many hours of sunshine, makingthem suitable for solar power generation.EXHIBIT 1: China and India have limited oil reserves...35030330026725020015010050VenezueSource: World population review, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT3:Goodcoal reserves in Chinaand India300 127325020015010050United StatesSource: World population review, Bernstein analysisINDIA INDUSTRIALS AND INFRASTRUCTURE Oil reserves 2023 (Bn barrels)20914511310280#124848United sKazakiCoal Reserves 2023 (Bn tons)#3179173165#514139393831RussiaUkraineAustraliaIndiaGermanyIndonesia EXHIBIT 2: Similar is the case for natural gasNatural gas- Proved reserves 2023 (Billioncubic meters)1,8001,6881,6001,4001,2011,2001,000872800600369,400#10#21#22200505PIndiaoArabiaUAENigerianinaIndiaTurkmenistaUnitedSSource: World population review, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT4:Sunshinehours inayear31<1200h2400-3000h1200 - 1600 h3000 -3600 h1600-2000h3600-4000h■2000-2400h+>4000hSource: IILSS, Bernstein analysisBERNSTEINSOCIETECENERALECROUP3 Even if we compare levelized cost of generation of electricity across technologies, India is one of the cheapest for electricitygenerated via solar or via coal fired power plants. - Exhibit 5.EXHIBIT 5: India has one of the lowest costs of electricity generation across most technologies1602023LCoEComparison ($/MWh)14013512012011310110110510080838068 6775717070616160454020ChinaIndiaUKancChinanesiaIndonesiaThailand9ThailanoChinThailVietIndonThailaVietrVietrCoalGasNuclearSolarWindSource: BNEF, IEA, National Audit Office (UK), Bernstein analysisWith the recent events of tariffs and trade sanctions, nations are now expected to prioritize self-reliance more than ever. Hence,we expect India to increase its dependency on electricity (generated on back of coal and solar), and optimize oil and natural gasin their energy mix, ensuring energy security and lowering energy imports.ELECTRICITY VS. MOLECULES - THE WORLD IS SHIFTING, CHINA WAY-AHEAD...THE GLOBAL SHIFT AND WHATISDRIVINGIT...If we look at the trajectory of IEA forecasts- we see a continuous upward revision in share of electricity in total energy mixwith every report- Exhibit 6. The shift is driven by both - new uses cases of electricity (e.g. data centers) and change in how weuse energy (e.g. EVs and heating). In emerging economies (especially India), electricity demand is expected to be driven frombuildings (as higher income translates to higher demand for appliances), while in the advanced economies transport is a biggerdriver (although building sizable as well). Exhibit 7.INDIAINDUSTRIALSANDINFRASTRUCTUREBERNSTEINSOCIETECENERALECROUP CHINA LEADING THE SHIFT..Around the year 2000, China, India and other emerging markets were at a similar level. Since then, China's share of electricity inthe final energy consumption increased steeply- from 11% in 2000 to 28% in 2023 (and is expected to reach 45%+ by 2050),while India also saw a rise the gap with China widened- Exhibit 8. In China, electricity generation grew at a CAGR of 9% in theEXHIBIT 8: Share of electricity in the total final energyconsumption: China growing by leaps and bounds...Share of electricity in final consumption50%40%30%20%10%20002023Advanced economiesChinaSource: IEA, Bernstein AnalysisGoing forward as well, if we look at the below estimates from IEA, India is expected to continue seeing rise in share of electricityin energy consumption, but still slower than China and even other advanced economies. We believe India's trajectory goingINDIA INDUSTRIALS AND INFRASTRUCTURE EXHIBIT 9: Global electricity generation: Stark gapbetween China and all other economiesElectricity generation (TWh)CAGR10,07310,000%68,0006,0004,3871%4,0002,6980.1%2,0005%2,0582050Other EMDEChinaIndiaIndiaUnited StatesEuropean UnionSource: Our world in data, Bernstein analysisBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP5 forward can be steeper if th